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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
21.09.2025 15:15 UTC Match prediction
21.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Monaco - Metz

France Football
Monaco
Monaco
5 : 2
Finished
Metz
Metz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Monaco - Metz September 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Line favourite market consensus: Monaco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.33 / X 5.61 / 2 8.19
  • 1X2 market: Monaco 71.4% / X 17.0% / Metz 11.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 67.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 71.5%
X 16.9%
2 11.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5 67.7%
Under 2.5 32.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.09.2025 15:15 UTC
Match center

Monaco - Metz

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.22 market consensus · line only
X 5.63 market consensus · line only
1 1.33 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.33 market consensus · line only
12 1.14 market consensus · line only
1X 1.09 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.49 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.66 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.80 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.39 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.91 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.16 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.66 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.33 75.2%
X 5.99 16.7%
8.65 11.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair
1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.40 71.4% 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.25 80.0%
X 5.60 17.9% 5.80 17.2% 5.84 17.1% 5.00 20.0% 5.60 17.9% 5.50 18.2%
7.80 12.8% 8.00 12.5% 7.75 12.9% 8.50 11.8% 9.25 10.8% 9.00 11.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.08 48.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.06 48.5% 2.26 44.3% 2.20 45.5%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.68 59.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.69 59.2% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 3.20 31.3% 3.22 31.1% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.28 30.5% 3.65 27.4%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.17 85.5% 1.15 87.0% 1.15 87.0% 1.16 86.2% 1.15 87.0%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.09 91.7% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Monaco
W W L W L
13.09 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:1 AuxerreAuxerre
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 3:2 StrasbourgStrasbourg
24.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:1 LilleLille
16.08 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 3:1 Le HavreLe Havre
17.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 0:4 LensLens
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
9 Points
Metz
D L L L D
14.09 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 AngersAngers
31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 2:3 Paris FCParis FC
23.08 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:3 LionLion
17.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 0:1 StrasbourgStrasbourg
29.05 18:30 UTC Ligue 1
Metz 1:1 Reims
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMonaco - Metz

Monaco
0 matches total
Metz
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history