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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
06.12.2025 16:00 UTC Match prediction
06.12.2025 16:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Nantes - Lens

France Football
Nantes
Nantes
1 : 2
Finished
Lens
Lens

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nantes - Lens December 6, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Line favourite market consensus: Lens. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.91 / X 3.89 / 2 1.69
  • 1X2 market: Nantes 19.4% / X 24.4% / Lens 56.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 19.4%
X 24.4%
2 56.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 54.5%
Under 2.5 45.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 06.12.2025 16:00 UTC
Match center

Nantes - Lens

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.69 market consensus · line only
X 3.90 market consensus · line only
1 4.92 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.18 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 2.19 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.17 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 4.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.75 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.08 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
5.10 19.6%
X 3.90 25.6%
1.72 58.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
5.25 19.1% 4.75 21.1% 5.13 19.5% 4.80 20.8% 4.75 21.1% 4.90 20.4%
X 3.95 25.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.03 24.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 3.85 26.0%
1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.05 48.8% 2.14 46.7% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.02 49.5% 2.14 46.7%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.69 59.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5% 1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.24 44.6%
Match center
Nantes
L D D L L
30.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:3 LionLion
23.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:1 LorientLorient
08.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:1 Le HavreLe Havre
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:2 MetzMetz
29.10 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 3:5 MonacoMonaco
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.4 Conceded
2 Points
Lens
W W W W L
30.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 AngersAngers
22.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
08.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 4:1 MonacoMonaco
02.11 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 LorientLorient
29.10 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:2 MetzMetz
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNantes - Lens

Nantes
0 matches total
Lens
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history