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Ligue 1 France

32 round 02.05.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

02.05.2026 13:00 UTC 32 round

Finished

Ligue 1

Nantes - Marseille

France Football

Stadium Stade de la Beaujoire

Referee J. Pignard

Capacity 38 285

Nantes

3 : 0

Finished

Marseille

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Marseille — 58%

1 · Nantes19.2%

X · draw23.3%

2 · Marseille ✓ Pick57.5%

Model estimate: win Nantes 19.2%, draw 23.3%, win Marseille 57.5%. Model favourite — Marseille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nantes - Marseille May 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Strongest: Marseille - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.99 / X 3.92 / 2 1.82
1X2 market: Nantes 23.8% / X 24.2% / Marseille 52.1%
Glicko: Nantes 19.2% / X 23.3% / Marseille 57.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%

1 23.8%

X 24.2%

2 ✓ Pick 52.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.9%

Over 2.5 60.2%

Under 2.5 39.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 57.3%

Total Over 2.5

Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Lya Bozhuar — Lui Fonteno (Nant, France), 28 308 zriteley (74% pri vmestimosti 38 285)

Referee Zheremi Pinyar

Start 02.05.2026 13:00 UTC

Capacity 38,285

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Marseille 58%

💹 Market Marseille 5207%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Nantes - Marseille

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Nant - Marsel, 2 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship France po futbolu (Liga 1) 2025-2026, 32 round. Nant - Marsel, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:0

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 79

min Event Player Team

18' 18' Yellow Card | M. Abline Matthis Abline Nantes

26' 26' Substitution 1 | D. Machado | assist/sub out: M. Acapandie Deiver Machado Nantes

31' 31' Yellow Card | Q. Timber Q. Timber Marseille

46' 46' Substitution 1 | P. Aubameyang | assist/sub out: E. Lago P. Aubameyang Marseille

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Q. Timber | assist/sub out: I. Paixao Q. Timber Marseille

49' 49' Yellow Card | E. Lago E. Lago Marseille

50' 50' Normal Goal | I. Ganago Ignatius Kpene Ganago Nantes

54' 54' Normal Goal | R. Cabella | assist/sub out: I. Ganago Rémy Cabella Nantes

Metric Nantes Marseille SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.42 1.36 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 4 final

Shots off target 6 4 final

Shots on target 6 8 final

Udary vsego 17 16 final

Fouls soversheno 12 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 2 1 final

Nantes #5 L. Balerdi, #6 T. Nnadi, #10 M. Greenwood, #12 J. De Lange, #17 P. Aubameyang, #18 A. Vermeeren, #20 H. J. Traore, #23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, #27 Q. Timber, #32 Facundo Medina, #33 Emerson

Marseille #3 Nicolas Cozza, #6 Chidozie Awaziem, #8 Johann Lepenant, #10 Matthis Abline, #20 Rémy Cabella, #21 Mohamed Kaba, #24 F. Guilbert, #27 Deiver Machado, #28 Ibrahima Sissoko, #30 Patrik Carlgren, #37 Ignatius Kpene Ganago

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Vermeeren Marseille football.player.minutes_played 65

Ali Youssef Marseille Seyvy 0

Ali Youssef Marseille Reyting (staryy) 6.7

Amine Gouiri Marseille football.player.minutes_played 31

Bahereba Guirassy Marseille Seyvy 0

Chidozie Awaziem Marseille Dribling popytki 6

Chidozie Awaziem Marseille Dribling uspeshno 1

Chidozie Awaziem Marseille Edinoborstva vsego 1

Chidozie Awaziem Marseille Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

Chidozie Awaziem Marseille Fouls soversheno 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Nantes 19.5% 19.2%

Draw 23.6% 23.3% draw risk

Marseille 56.9% 57.5% market and model agree

xG - 0.91 : 1.76

Total 2.5 Over 80.5% - Under 19.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 19.2% / 23.3% / 57.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,394 / 1,585 Nantes / Marseille

RD 75 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.82 market consensus · weak value +4.7% · model 57.5%

X 3.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.99 market consensus · no value · model 19.2%

Double chance

X2 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 80.8%

12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 76.7%

1X 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 42.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.23 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.05 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.79 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.39 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.57 market consensus · value +26.4% · model 80.5%

Under 2.5 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 19.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.36 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.54 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.80 26.3%	4.04 24.8%	3.90 25.6%	3.90 25.6%	4.05 24.7%	4.00 25.0%
X	3.80 26.3%	4.11 24.3%	3.80 26.3%	3.80 26.3%	3.95 25.3%	3.90 25.6%
	1.83 54.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.75 57.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.73 57.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.45 40.8%	2.25 44.4%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.36 42.4%	2.32 43.1%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.52 65.8%	1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.17 85.5%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.93 51.8%	1.99 50.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.03 97.1%	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5	1.18 84.8%	1.13 88.5%
Over 1.75	—	1.17 85.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 2.25	—	1.45 69.0%
Over 2.5	1.57 63.7%	1.64 61.0%
Over 3.5	2.40 41.7%	—
Over 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—
Under 0.5	11.00 9.1%	—
Under 1.5	4.75 21.1%	—
Under 2.5	2.35 42.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.55 64.5%	—
Under 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—

Match center

Nantes

Founded 1943

Marseille

Founded 1899

Match center

Nantes

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Marseille

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Lubade Silla Tilel Tati Amadi Kamara Faben Sentons Kelven Amen-Adu Travmirovannye Zhoffrey Kondogbia Nayef Ager Bilal Nadir Si Dzhey Igan-Rayli Diskvalifitsirovannye Demen Assumani CHAMP Benzhamen Pavar Timoti Vea CHAMP

Nantes Founded: 1943

Marseille Founded: 1899

Match center

Nantes

L L D D D

26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 1:2 Rennes

22.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:3 Paris Saint Germain

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 1:1 Stade Brestois 29

11.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:0 Auxerre

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:0 Metz

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

0.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

3 Points

Marseille

D L W L L

26.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:1 Nice

18.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 0:2 Lorient

10.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 3:1 Metz

05.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:2 Monaco

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Marseille 1:2 Lille

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNantes - Marseille

Nantes

1 matches total

Marseille

Nantes: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Marseille: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Nantes 2:0 (04.01 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 04.01 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

04.01 14:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Nantes

2:0

Marseille

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Nantes

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Marseille

31 Games 31

4 Wins 16

8 Draws 5

19 Losses 10

26 Scored 59

51 Conceded 41

20 Points 53

79.77 Attacks 102.76

35.03 Dangerous attacks 52.14

0 Big chances 0

10.16 Shots on goal 14.39

3.06 Shots on target 5.45

daleniya 0.13 Goly Ignatius Ganago Mattis Ablin 1:0 50' Remi Kabella Ignatius Ganago 2:0 54' Mattis Ablin Mokhamed Kaba 3:0 58' Nakazaniya Mattis Ablin 18' Kvinten Timber 31' Anzh Lago 49' Fakundo Medina 81'

Nant Marsel 31 Games 31 4 Wins 16 8 Draws 5 19 Losses 10 26 Scored 59 51 Conceded 41 20 Points 53 79.77 Attacks 102.76 35.03 Dangerous attacks 52.14 0 Big chances 0 10.16 Shots on goal 14.39 3.06 Udary v stvor 5.45 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.61 Uglovye 5.29 1.32 Offsaydy 1.16 12.55 Foly 12.42.19 % vladeniya myachom 57.52 2.06 Warnings 2.26 0.06 Sendoffs 0.13 Goly Ignatius Ganago Mattis Ablin 1:0 50' Remi Kabella Ignatius Ganago 2:0 54' Mattis Ablin Mokhamed Kaba 3:0 58' Nakazaniya Mattis Ablin 18' Kvinten Timber 31' Anzh Lago 49' Fakundo Medina 81'