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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
19.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction
19.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Nantes - Stade Brestois 29

France Football
Stadium Stade de la Beaujoire
Capacity 38 285
Nantes
Nantes
1 : 1
Finished
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Nantes — 37%

1 · Nantes37.2%
X · draw28.3%
2 · Stade Brestois 2934.6%

Model estimate: win Nantes 37.2%, draw 28.3%, win Stade Brestois 29 34.6%. Model favourite — Nantes.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nantes - Stade Brestois 29 April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nantes.

Strongest: Nantes - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.23 / 2 2.98
  • 1X2 market: Nantes 38.7% / X 29.4% / Stade Brestois 29 31.8%
  • Glicko: Nantes 37.2% / X 28.3% / Stade Brestois 29 34.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 38.7%
X 29.4%
2 31.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 43.8%
Under 2.5 56.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 28.4%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Stadium Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)
Capacity 38,285

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nantes 37%
💹 Market Nantes 3874%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nantes - Stade Brestois 29

Nantes: Win 2.35 Nantes: Draw 3.30 Stade Brestois 29 Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Nantes bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Nantes menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Stade Bres…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 14
Statistics 26
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
9' 9' Normal Goal | Mostafa Mohamed J. James Nantes
41' 41' Yellow Card | Daouda Guindo Stade Brestois 29
45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | Romain Del Castillo J. Blaswich Stade Brestois 29
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Francis Coquelin | assist/sub out: Louis Leroux M. Sels Nantes
56' 56' Yellow Card | Louis Leroux Nantes
65' 65' Red Card | Dehmaine Tabibou Nantes
67' 67' Substitution 1 | Junior Dina Ebimbe | assist/sub out: Hamidou Makalou Stade Brestois 29
67' 67' Substitution 2 | Daouda Guindo | assist/sub out: Kenny Lala Stade Brestois 29
Metric Nantes Stade Brestois 29 SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.92 0.42 final
Zablokirovannye udary 9 0 final
Shots off target 4 2 final
Shots on target 4 2 final
Udary vsego 17 4 final
Fouls soversheno 13 17 final
Red cards 1 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Nantes #1 Anthony Lopes, #2 Ali Youssef, #3 Nicolas Cozza, #8 Johann Lepenant, #13 F. Coquelin, #17 Dehmaine Tabibou, #24 F. Guilbert, #27 Deiver Machado, #28 Ibrahima Sissoko, #31 Mostafa Mohamed, #37 Ignatius Kpene Ganago
Stade Brestois 29 #5 B. Chardonnet, #7 J. Dina Ebimbe, #8 H. Magnetti, #10 R. Del Castillo, #12 L. Zogbe, #13 J. Chotard, #14 R. Labeau Lascary, #19 L. Ajorque, #27 D. Guindo, #30 G. Coudert, #44 S. Coulibaly
Player Team Metric SStats
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 football.player.assists 0
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 Dribling popytki 4
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 Edinoborstva vsego 1
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 Edinoborstva vyigrano 7
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 Fouls soversheno 1
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 football.player.goals 1
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 Seyvy 0
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 football.player.minutes_played 90
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 Tochnost pasov % 1
B. Chardonnet Stade Brestois 29 Klyuchevye pasy 60
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nantes 40.1% 37.2% market and model agree
Draw 29.0% 28.3% draw risk
Stade Brestois 29 30.8% 34.6%
xG - 1.18 : 1.13
Total 2.5 Over 52.0% - Under 48.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.2% / 28.3% / 34.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,394 / 1,507 Nantes / Stade Brestois 29
RD 76 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.98 market consensus · no value · model 34.6%
X 3.23 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.45 market consensus · no value · model 37.2%
Double chance
X2 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 62.9%
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 71.7%
1X 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 65.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.91 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.50 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.17 market consensus · value +12.8% · model 52.0%
Under 2.5 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 48.0%
Both teams to score
No 1.90 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.42 41.3% 2.38 42.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.47 40.5%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.15 31.8%
2.95 33.9% 3.00 33.3% 3.09 32.4% 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5% 3.05 32.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.87 53.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.38 72.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — — 1.21 82.6%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% — 1.35 74.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.44 69.4%
Over 2.25 — 1.88 53.2% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 3.5 3.85 26.0% — —
Over 4.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.02 49.5% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Nantes
Founded 1943
Stade Brestois 29
Founded 1950
Match center
Nantes
D D L L L
11.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:0 AuxerreAuxerre
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:0 MetzMetz
22.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 2:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
07.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:1 AngersAngers
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:1 LilleLille
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
2 Points
Stade Brestois 29
L L L W W
04.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 3:4 RennesRennes
21.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 0:3 AuxerreAuxerre
14.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 0:2 MonacoMonaco
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 2:0 Le HavreLe Havre
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 1:0 MetzMetz
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNantes - Stade Brestois 29

Nantes
1 matches total
Stade Brestois 29
Nantes: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Stade Brestois 29: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (04.10 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

04.10 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes
0:0
Stade Brestois 29
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.