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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
12.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction
12.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Nice - Le Havre

France Football
Stadium Allianz Riviera
Capacity 35 624
Nice
Nice
1 : 1
Finished
Le Havre
Le Havre
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Nice — 47%

1 · Nice46.7%
X · draw26.9%
2 · Le Havre26.5%

Model estimate: win Nice 46.7%, draw 26.9%, win Le Havre 26.5%. Model favourite — Nice.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nice - Le Havre April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nice.

Strongest: Nice - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.95 / X 3.34 / 2 4.21
  • 1X2 market: Nice 48.9% / X 28.5% / Le Havre 22.7%
  • Glicko: Nice 46.7% / X 26.9% / Le Havre 26.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 48.9%
X 28.5%
2 22.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 50.5%
Under 2.5 49.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 48.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 12.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Stadium Allianz Riviera (Nice)
Capacity 35,624

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nice 47%
💹 Market Nice 4885%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nice - Le Havre

Nice: Win 1.91 Nice: Draw 3.25 Le Havre Win: 4.33 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Nice bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Nice menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Le Havre bolshe 0.5: 1.50 I…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 12
Statistics 24
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
2' 2' Yellow Card | Elye Wahi Nice
41' 41' Normal Goal | Mbwana Ally Samatta Pontus Almqvist Le Havre
50' 50' Yellow Card | Fodé Doucouré Le Havre
59' 59' Normal Goal | Ali Abdi Nice
70' 70' Substitution 1 | Fodé Doucouré | assist/sub out: Sofiane Boufal Le Havre
71' 71' Substitution 2 | Simon Ebonog | assist/sub out: Timothee Pembele Le Havre
76' 76' Substitution 1 | Charles Vanhoutte | assist/sub out: Sofiane Diop A. Maslovskiy Nice
81' 81' Substitution 3 | Ali Abdi | assist/sub out: Tom Louchet Nice
Metric Nice Le Havre SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.11 1.76 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 7 4 final
Shots on target 5 6 final
Udary vsego 15 11 final
Fouls soversheno 20 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final
Offsides 4 1 final
Nice #2 Ali Abdi, #6 Hicham Boudaoui, #8 Morgan Sanson, #11 E. Wahi, #24 Charles Vanhoutte, #25 Mohamed Ali Cho, #26 Melvin Bard, #33 Antoine Mendy, #37 Kojo Peprah Oppong, #80 Yehvann Diouf, #92 Jonathan Clauss
Le Havre #4 G. Lloris, #13 F. Doucouré, #14 R. Ndiaye, #15 Ayumu Seko, #18 Y. Zouaoui, #19 L. Gourna-Douath, #25 M. Samatta, #26 S. Ebonog, #45 I. Soumaré, #93 A. Sangante, #99 Mory Diaw
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Sangante Le Havre football.player.assists 0
A. Sangante Le Havre Dribling popytki 9
A. Sangante Le Havre Edinoborstva vsego 3
A. Sangante Le Havre Edinoborstva vyigrano 18
A. Sangante Le Havre Fouls soversheno 3
A. Sangante Le Havre Seyvy 0
A. Sangante Le Havre football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Sangante Le Havre Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Sangante Le Havre Klyuchevye pasy 48
A. Sangante Le Havre Reyting (staryy) 7.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nice 50.2% 46.7% market and model agree
Draw 28.4% 26.9% draw risk
Le Havre 21.4% 26.5%
xG - 1.41 : 0.99
Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 46.7% / 26.9% / 26.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,452 / 1,460 Nice / Le Havre
RD 75 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.21 market consensus · no value · model 26.5%
X 3.34 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%
Double chance
X2 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 53.4%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%
1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 73.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.05 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%
Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · value +20.6% · model 62.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.05 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.92 52.1% 1.96 51.0% 2.01 49.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.45 29.0% 3.30 30.3%
4.30 23.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.46 22.4% 4.10 24.4% 4.35 23.0% 4.50 22.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3% 2.00 50.0%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.89 52.9% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Over 2.25 — 1.85 54.1% —
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Over 4.5 6.00 16.7% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.55 28.2% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.05 48.8% —
Under 2.5 1.91 52.4% 2.03 49.3% —
Under 3.5 1.35 74.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
Nice
Founded 1904
Le Havre
Founded 1872
Match center
Nice
YN Y. Ndayishimiye Red Card
D Dante Injury
Le Havre
FM F. Mambimbi Injury
AT A. Touré Knee Injury
Nice Founded: 1904
Le Havre Founded: 1872
Match center
Nice
L L W L L
04.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 1:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
21.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:4 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
14.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 2:0 AngersAngers
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:4 RennesRennes
01.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nice 0:1 Paris FCParis FC
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
2.4 Conceded
3 Points
Le Havre
D L D L L
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 1:1 AuxerreAuxerre
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 2:3 Paris FCParis FC
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 0:0 LionLion
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 0:2 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
28.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Le Havre 0:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNice - Le Havre

Nice
1 matches total
Le Havre
Nice: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Le Havre: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Le Havre 1:3 (31.08 15:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 31.08 15:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

31.08 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nice
1:3
Le Havre
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.