Ligue 1 France

02.05.2026 19:05 UTC Match prediction

02.05.2026 19:05 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Nice - Lens

France Futbol

Stadium Allianz Riviera

Referee T. Leonard

Capacity 35 624

Nice

1 : 1

Finished

Lens

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lens — 55%

1 · Nice21.1%

X · draw23.6%

2 · Lens ✓ Прогноз55.3%

Model estimate: win Nice 21.1%, draw 23.6%, win Lens 55.3%. Model favourite — Lens.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nice - Lens 2 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Strongest: Lens - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.51 / X 4.11 / 2 1.70
1X2 market: Nice 21.1% / X 23.1% / Lens 55.8%
Glicko: Nice 21.1% / X 23.6% / Lens 55.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 35.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 21.1%

X 23.1%

2 ✓ Прогноз 55.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%

Over 2.5 60.8%

Under 2.5 39.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 56.1%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 0:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center

Start 02.05.2026 19:05 UTC

Stadium Allianz Riviera (Nice)

Referee T. Leonard

Capacity 35,624

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lens 55%

💹 Market Lens 5581%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Nice - Lens

Nice: Победа 4.00 Nice: Ничья 3.90 Lens Победа: 1.65 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.57 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.38 Индивидуальный тотал голов Nice больше 1.5: 2.75 Индивидуальный тотал голов Nice меньше 1.5: 1.40 Индивидуальный тотал голов Lens больше 1.5: 1.57 Индивидуа…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 15

Statistics 26

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

27' 27' Yellow Card | M. Sarr M. Sarr Lens

44' 44' Yellow Card | F. Thauvin F. Thauvin Lens

45' 45' Yellow Card | J. Bah Abdulay Bah Nice

60' 60' Normal Goal | A. Saint-Maximin | assist/sub out: A. Thomasson A. Saint-Maximin Lens

71' 71' Substitution 1 | M. Sanson | assist/sub out: S. Abdul Samed Morgan Sanson Nice

71' 71' Substitution 2 | M. Cho | assist/sub out: I. Jansson Mohamed Ali Cho Nice

71' 71' Substitution 3 | K. Boudache | assist/sub out: A. Abdi Kaïl Boudache Nice

77' 77' Substitution 1 | O. Edouard | assist/sub out: A. Sima O. Edouard Lens

Metric Nice Lens SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.07 1.53 final

Заблокированные удары 5 6 final

Удары мимо 2 6 final

Удары в створ 2 4 final

Удары всего 9 16 final

Фолы совершено 11 10 final

Красные карточки 0 1 final

Желтые карточки 2 3 final

Nice #10 Sofiane Diop, #25 Mohamed Ali Cho, #26 Melvin Bard, #80 Yehvann Diouf, #8 Morgan Sanson, #37 Kojo Peprah Oppong, #6 Hicham Boudaoui, #28 Abdulay Bah, #32 Kaïl Boudache, #33 Antoine Mendy, #20 Tom Louchet

Lens #9 A. Saint-Maximin, #11 O. Edouard, #14 M. Udol, #20 M. Sarr, #40 Robin Risser, #6 S. Baidoo, #10 F. Thauvin, #28 A. Thomasson, #8 M. Sangare, #25 I. Ganiou, #23 Saud Abdulhamid

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bulatovic Lens Сейвы 0

A. Haidara Lens Сейвы 0

A. Saint-Maximin Lens Дриблинг попытки 5

A. Saint-Maximin Lens Дриблинг успешно 4

A. Saint-Maximin Lens Единоборства выиграно 11

A. Saint-Maximin Lens Фолы совершено 1

A. Saint-Maximin Lens Фолы на игроке 2

A. Saint-Maximin Lens football.player.goals 1

A. Saint-Maximin Lens Сейвы 0

A. Saint-Maximin Lens football.player.minutes_played 93

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Nice 20.3% 21.1%

Draw 23.0% 23.6% draw risk

Lens 56.7% 55.3% market and model agree

xG - 0.98 : 1.74

Total 2.5 Over 35.2% - Under 64.8%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 21.1% / 23.6% / 55.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,465 / 1,642 Nice / Lens

RD 73 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 55.3%

X 4.11 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 4.51 market consensus · no value · model 21.1%

Double chance

X2 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 78.9%

12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 76.4%

1X 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.68 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.14 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 4.25 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 35.2%

Under 2.5 2.40 market consensus · weak value +55.5% · model 64.8%

Both teams to score

No 2.33 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.56 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	4.30 23.3%	4.88 20.5%	4.33 23.1%	4.50 22.2%	4.65 21.5%	4.50 22.2%
Х	3.95 25.3%	4.32 23.2%	3.90 25.6%	4.33 23.1%	4.30 23.3%	4.00 25.0%
П2	1.71 58.5%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.30 43.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.40 41.7%	2.20 45.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.30 43.5%	2.32 43.1%	2.35 42.6%
yes	1.55 64.5%	1.54 64.9%	1.57 63.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.54 64.9%	1.54 64.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.23 81.3%	1.17 85.5%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.26 79.4%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	2.10 47.6%	2.24 44.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.18 45.9%	2.10 47.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.5	1.18 84.8%	1.11 90.1%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.14 87.7%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.18 84.8%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.35 74.1%
ТБ 2.5	1.57 63.7%	—
ТБ 3.5	2.40 41.7%	—
ТБ 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—
ТБ 5.5	7.50 13.3%	—
ТМ 0.5	11.00 9.1%	—
ТМ 1.5	4.75 21.1%	—
ТМ 2.5	2.38 42.0%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.55 64.5%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—
ТМ 5.5	1.08 92.6%	—

Match center

Nice

Founded 1904

Lens

Founded 1906

Match center

Nice

D D D L L

26.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Nice 1:1 Marseille

18.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Nice 0:0 Lille

12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nice 1:1 Le Havre

04.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nice 1:3 Strasbourg

21.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Nice 0:4 Paris Saint Germain

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.8 Conceded

3 Points

Lens

D W L W L

24.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 3:3 Stade Brestois 29

17.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 3:2 Toulouse

04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 0:3 Lille

20.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 5:1 Angers

14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lens 1:2 Lorient

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.4 Scored

2.2 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNice - Lens

Nice

2 matches total

Lens

Nice: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Lens: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Lens 0:2 (14.12 16:15 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 14.12 16:15 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (28.09 15:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.12 16:15 UTC

Ligue 1

Nice

0:2

Lens

28.09 15:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Nice

0:0

Lens

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.