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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
26.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Paris FC - Lille

France Football
Stadium Stade Jean Bouin
Referee M. Vernice
Capacity 20 000
Paris FC
Paris FC
0 : 1
Finished
Lille
Lille
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lille — 50%

1 · Paris FC24.1%
X · draw25.7%
2 · Lille50.2%

Model estimate: win Paris FC 24.1%, draw 25.7%, win Lille 50.2%. Model favourite — Lille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris FC - Lille April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Strongest: Lille - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.84 / X 3.56 / 2 1.93
  • 1X2 market: Paris FC 24.6% / X 26.5% / Lille 48.9%
  • Glicko: Paris FC 24.1% / X 25.7% / Lille 50.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 39.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 24.6%
X 26.5%
2 48.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 51.1%
Under 2.5 48.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 50.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 26.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Stadium Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)
Referee M. Vernice
Capacity 20,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lille 50%
💹 Market Lille 4885%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Paris FC - Lille

Paris FC: Win 4.00 Paris FC: Draw 3.60 Lille Win: 1.91 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Paris FC bolshe 0.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Paris FC menshe 0.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Lille bolshe 1…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 26
Lineups 40
Metric Paris FC Lille SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.06 1.71 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 3 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 2 4 final
Udary vsego 7 10 final
Fouls soversheno 12 10 final
Red cards 1 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 6 3 final
Paris FC #1 B. Ozer, #3 Nathan Ngoy, #7 Matías Fernández-Pardo, #10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, #12 Thomas Meunier, #15 R. Perraud, #17 Ngal'ayel Mukau, #21 B. Andre, #23 Aïssa Mandi, #27 F. Correia, #32 Ayyoub Bouaddi
Lille #5 M. Mbow, #17 A. Camara, #18 M. Munetsi, #19 N. Sangui, #21 M. Lopez, #27 Moses Simon, #33 P. Lees-Melou, #35 K. Trapp, #36 C. Immobile, #42 D. Coppola, #93 J. Ikone
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Camara Lille football.player.assists 0
A. Camara Lille Dribling popytki 1
A. Camara Lille Edinoborstva vsego 4
A. Camara Lille Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
A. Camara Lille Seyvy 0
A. Camara Lille football.player.minutes_played 89
A. Camara Lille Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Camara Lille Klyuchevye pasy 43
A. Camara Lille Reyting (staryy) 6.6
A. Camara Lille Bloki 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Paris FC 24.4% 24.1%
Draw 25.6% 25.7% draw risk
Lille 50.0% 50.2% market and model agree
xG - 0.98 : 1.53
Total 2.5 Over 39.7% - Under 60.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.00
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.00

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.1% / 25.7% / 50.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,525 / 1,613 Paris FC / Lille
RD 76 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 50.2%
X 3.56 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.84 market consensus · no value · model 24.1%
Double chance
X2 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 75.9%
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 74.3%
1X 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 49.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.67 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 39.7%
Under 2.5 1.94 market consensus · value +16.9% · model 60.3%
Both teams to score
No 2.03 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.85 26.0% 4.04 24.8% 3.60 27.8% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.84 26.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8%
1.90 52.6% 1.97 50.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.20 83.3%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.85 54.1% 1.93 51.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% 1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75 — 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.0 — 1.39 71.9%
Over 2.25 — 1.62 61.7%
Over 2.5 1.83 54.6% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 1.5 3.60 27.8% —
Under 2.5 1.95 51.3% —
Under 3.5 1.35 74.1% —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% —
Match center
Paris FC
Founded 1969
Lille
Founded 1944
Match center
Paris FC
W W D W D
19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 3:1 MetzMetz
10.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 4:1 MonacoMonaco
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:1 LorientLorient
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 3:2 Le HavreLe Havre
15.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
11 Points
Lille
D W W W W
18.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 0:0 NiceNice
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 4:0 ToulouseToulouse
04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 3:0 LensLens
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
15.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lille 2:1 RennesRennes
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis FC - Lille

Paris FC
1 matches total
Lille
Paris FC: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lille: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lille 2:4 (23.11 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (2:4, 23.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 2

Match history

23.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC
2:4
Lille
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.