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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
10.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
10.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Paris FC - Monaco

France Football
Stadium Stade Jean Bouin
Capacity 20 000
Paris FC
Paris FC
4 : 1
Finished
Monaco
Monaco
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Monaco — 50%

1 · Paris FC24.4%
X · draw25.1%
2 · Monaco50.5%

Model estimate: win Paris FC 24.4%, draw 25.1%, win Monaco 50.5%. Model favourite — Monaco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris FC - Monaco April 10, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Strongest: Monaco - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.81 / X 3.75 / 2 1.92
  • 1X2 market: Paris FC 25.0% / X 25.4% / Monaco 49.6%
  • Glicko: Paris FC 24.4% / X 25.1% / Monaco 50.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 46.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 25.0%
X 25.4%
2 49.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 58.1%
Under 2.5 41.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 50.1%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 10.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Stadium Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)
Capacity 20,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Monaco 50%
💹 Market Monaco 4959%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Paris FC - Monaco

Paris FC: Win 3.80 Paris FC: Draw 3.80 Monaco Win: 1.91 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Paris FC bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Paris FC menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Monaco bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:1
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
4' 4' Normal Goal | Jonathan Ikoné L. Daschner Paris FC
8' 8' Normal Goal | Ciro Immobile | assist/sub out: Marshall Munetsi Álvaro Morata Paris FC
21' 21' Normal Goal | Jonathan Ikoné L. Daschner Paris FC
36' 36' Normal Goal | Folarin Balogun Monaco
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Jordan Teze | assist/sub out: Krépin Diatta Monaco
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Lamine Camara | assist/sub out: Christian Mawissa Monaco
59' 59' Yellow Card | Adama Camara Paris FC
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Adama Camara | assist/sub out: Hamari Traoré Paris FC
Metric Paris FC Monaco SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.61 2.31 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 8 final
Shots off target 4 6 final
Shots on target 6 5 final
Udary vsego 12 19 final
Fouls soversheno 5 6 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Offsides 1 3 final
Paris FC #1 L. Hradecky, #4 J. Teze, #5 T. Kehrer, #6 D. Zakaria, #9 F. Balogun, #15 Lamine Camara, #23 A. Bamba, #24 S. Adingra, #25 W. Faes, #28 M. Coulibaly, #31 A. Fati
Monaco #5 M. Mbow, #17 A. Camara, #18 M. Munetsi, #19 N. Sangui, #21 M. Lopez, #27 Moses Simon, #33 P. Lees-Melou, #35 K. Trapp, #36 C. Immobile, #42 D. Coppola, #93 J. Ikone
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Camara Monaco football.player.assists 0
A. Camara Monaco Dribling popytki 5
A. Camara Monaco Edinoborstva vsego 2
A. Camara Monaco Edinoborstva vyigrano 10
A. Camara Monaco Seyvy 0
A. Camara Monaco football.player.minutes_played 65
A. Camara Monaco Klyuchevye pasy 25
A. Camara Monaco Reyting (staryy) 7.2
A. Camara Monaco Bloki 4
A. Camara Monaco Perekhvaty 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Paris FC 24.9% 24.4%
Draw 25.5% 25.1% draw risk
Monaco 49.6% 50.5% market and model agree
xG - 1.02 : 1.59
Total 2.5 Over 46.2% - Under 53.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.4% / 25.1% / 50.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,497 / 1,608 Paris FC / Monaco
RD 78 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 50.5%
X 3.75 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.81 market consensus · no value · model 24.4%
Double chance
X2 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 74.9%
1X 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 49.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.59 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 46.2%
Under 2.5 2.27 market consensus · value +22.2% · model 53.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.31 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.55 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
4.00 25.0% 3.65 27.4% 3.96 25.3% 3.80 26.3% 4.15 24.1% 3.90 25.6%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.85 26.0% 3.96 25.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.65 27.4% 3.80 26.3%
1.90 52.6% 1.94 51.6% 1.96 51.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.35 42.6% 2.41 41.5% 2.32 43.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.35 42.6% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.30 43.5%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.56 64.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.22 82.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.85 54.1% 1.94 51.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — 1.17 85.5%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.81 55.3% —
Over 3.0 — 2.07 48.3% —
Over 3.5 2.55 39.2% — —
Over 4.5 4.50 22.2% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 2.09 47.9% —
Under 3.0 — 1.83 54.6% —
Under 3.5 1.50 66.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3% — —
Match center
Paris FC
Founded 1969
Monaco
Founded 1919
Match center
Paris FC
CI C. Immobile Illness
RR R. Riou Groin Injury
Monaco
TM T. Minamino Knee Injury
CH Caio Henrique Thigh Injury
Paris FC Founded: 1969
Monaco Founded: 1919
Match center
Paris FC
D W D D W
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:1 LorientLorient
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 3:2 Le HavreLe Havre
15.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
08.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:1 LionLion
01.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:0 NiceNice
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Monaco
W W W W W
05.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:1 LionLion
14.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
06.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 3:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
28.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:0 AngersAngers
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
15 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis FC - Monaco

Paris FC
1 matches total
Monaco
Paris FC: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Monaco: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Paris FC 1:0 (01.11 18:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 01.11 18:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

01.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC
1:0
Monaco
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.