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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
17.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
17.05.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Paris FC - Paris Saint Germain

France Football
Paris FC
Paris FC
2 : 1
Finished
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris FC - Paris Saint Germain May 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Line favourite market consensus: Paris Saint Germain. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.81 / X 4.48 / 2 1.61
  • 1X2 market: Paris FC 19.8% / X 21.2% / Paris Saint Germain 59.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 67.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 19.8%
X 21.2%
2 59.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 67.5%
Under 2.5 32.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 17.05.2026 19:00 UTC
Match center

Paris FC - Paris Saint Germain

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.61 market consensus · line only
X 4.48 market consensus · line only
1 4.81 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.18 market consensus · line only
12 1.19 market consensus · line only
1X 2.31 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.18 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.94 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.39 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.89 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.62 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.43 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
4.85 20.6% 5.08 19.7% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1% 4.80 20.8% 4.75 21.1%
X 4.45 22.5% 4.72 21.2% 4.20 23.8% 4.50 22.2% 4.65 21.5% 4.40 22.7%
1.57 63.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.55 39.2% 2.59 38.6% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.55 39.2% 2.80 35.7% 2.63 38.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.60 38.5%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.15 87.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 2.35 42.6% 2.39 41.8% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.75 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 2.0 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.25 — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.5 1.40 71.4% 1.38 72.5%
Over 2.75 — 1.48 67.6%
Over 3.5 2.00 50.0% —
Over 4.5 3.25 30.8% —
Over 5.5 5.75 17.4% —
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4% —
Under 2.5 2.88 34.7% —
Under 3.5 1.80 55.6% —
Under 4.5 1.33 75.2% —
Under 5.5 1.13 88.5% —
Match center
Paris FC
L W L W W
10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:2 RennesRennes
03.05 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 4:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
26.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:1 LilleLille
19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 3:1 MetzMetz
10.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 4:1 MonacoMonaco
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Paris Saint Germain
W W D W W
13.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 2:0 LensLens
10.05 19:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 1:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
02.05 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 2:2 LorientLorient
25.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 3:0 AngersAngers
22.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 3:0 NantesNantes
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis FC - Paris Saint Germain

Paris FC
1 matches total
Paris Saint Germain
Paris FC: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Paris Saint Germain: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Paris Saint Germain 1:2 (04.01 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 04.01 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

04.01 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC
1:2
Paris Saint Germain