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Ligue 1 France

02.05.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction

02.05.2026 15:00 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain - Lorient

France Football

Stadium Parc des Princes

Referee B. Dechepy

Capacity 47 929

Paris Saint Germain

2 : 2

Finished

Lorient

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Paris Saint Germain — 72%

1 · Paris Saint Germain ✓ Pick72.2%

market70%

X · draw17.3%

market17%

2 · Lorient10.5%

market13%

Model estimate: win Paris Saint Germain 72.2%, draw 17.3%, win Lorient 10.5%. Model favourite — Paris Saint Germain.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris Saint Germain - Lorient May 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Strongest: Paris Saint Germain - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.35 / X 5.43 / 2 7.55
1X2 market: Paris Saint Germain 70.0% / X 17.5% / Lorient 12.6%
Glicko: Paris Saint Germain 72.2% / X 17.3% / Lorient 10.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 24.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%

1 ✓ Pick 70.1%

X 17.4%

2 12.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%

Over 2.5 66.0%

Under 2.5 34.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 71.6%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 02.05.2026 15:00 UTC

Stadium Parc des Princes (Paris)

Referee B. Dechepy

Capacity 47,929

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Paris Saint Germain 72%

💹 Market Paris Saint Germain 6995%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Paris Saint Germain - Lorient

Paris Saint Germain: Win 1.36 Paris Saint Germain: Draw 5.75 Lorient Win: 7.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain menshe 2.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:2

Events 13

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

6' 6' Normal Goal | I. Mbaye Ibrahim Mbaye Paris Saint Germain

12' 12' Normal Goal | P. Pagis | assist/sub out: P. Katseris P. Pagis Lorient

47' 47' Yellow Card | L. Hernandez Lucas Hernández Paris Saint Germain

61' 61' Substitution 1 | F. Ruiz | assist/sub out: W. Zaire-Emery Fabián Ruiz Paris Saint Germain

62' 62' Substitution 2 | I. Mbaye | assist/sub out: J. Neves Ibrahim Mbaye Paris Saint Germain

62' 62' Normal Goal | W. Zaire-Emery Warren Zaïre-Emery Paris Saint Germain

72' 72' Substitution 1 | P. Pagis | assist/sub out: D. Karim P. Pagis Lorient

72' 72' Substitution 2 | B. Dieng | assist/sub out: A. Tosin Ahmadou Bamba Dieng Lorient

Metric Paris Saint Germain Lorient SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.42 0.96 final

Zablokirovannye udary 8 0 final

Shots off target 10 2 final

Shots on target 6 3 final

Udary vsego 24 5 final

Fouls soversheno 9 7 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final

Offsides 1 2 final

Paris Saint Germain #21 Lucas Hernández, #27 Pedro Fernández, #29 Bradley Barcola, #89 Renato Marin, #8 Fabián Ruiz, #14 Désiré Doué, #51 Willian Pacho, #4 Lucas Beraldo, #19 Lee Kang-In, #49 Ibrahim Mbaye, #24 Senny Mayulu

Lorient #10 P. Pagis, #12 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng, #25 A. Faye, #38 Y. Mvogo, #43 K. Kouassi, #3 Montassar Talbi, #8 N. Cadiou, #62 A. Avom, #6 L. Abergel, #32 N. Adjei, #77 P. Katseris

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Avom Lorient Dribling popytki 2

A. Avom Lorient Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Avom Lorient Edinoborstva vsego 2

A. Avom Lorient Edinoborstva vyigrano 7

A. Avom Lorient Fouls soversheno 1

A. Avom Lorient Seyvy 0

A. Avom Lorient football.player.minutes_played 73

A. Avom Lorient Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Avom Lorient Klyuchevye pasy 22

A. Avom Lorient Reyting (staryy) 6.2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Paris Saint Germain 70.9% 72.2% market and model agree

Draw 17.1% 17.3% draw risk

Lorient 12.0% 10.5%

xG - 2.28 : 0.74

Total 2.5 Over 24.6% - Under 75.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 72.2% / 17.3% / 10.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,717 / 1,522 Paris Saint Germain / Lorient

RD 82 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.55 market consensus · no value · model 10.5%

X 5.43 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 72.2%

Double chance

X2 3.14 market consensus · no value · model 27.8%

12 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 82.7%

1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 89.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.21 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.53 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.80 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.33 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 24.6%

Under 2.5 2.76 market consensus · weak value +108.1% · model 75.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.16 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.64 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.34 74.6%	1.39 71.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.33 75.2%
X	5.40 18.5%	5.64 17.7%	5.00 20.0%	5.75 17.4%	5.60 17.9%	5.50 18.2%
	7.25 13.8%	8.30 12.1%	7.00 14.3%	7.00 14.3%	7.80 12.8%	7.50 13.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.13 47.0%	2.25 44.4%	2.05 48.8%	2.12 47.2%	2.30 43.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.11 47.4%	2.10 47.6%
yes	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%	1.62 61.7%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.57 63.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	3.25 30.8%	3.24 30.9%	3.10 32.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.20 31.3%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.18 84.8%	1.15 87.0%	1.14 87.7%	1.15 87.0%	1.13 88.5%
home_draw	1.06 94.3%	1.09 91.7%	1.08 92.6%	1.10 90.9%	1.12 89.3%	1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5	1.14 87.7%	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.75	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 2.0	—	1.13 88.5%
Over 2.25	—	1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5	1.44 69.4%	1.41 70.9%
Over 2.75	—	1.51 66.2%
Over 3.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Over 4.5	3.45 29.0%	—
Over 5.5	6.25 16.0%	—
Under 1.5	5.50 18.2%	—
Under 2.5	2.70 37.0%	—
Under 3.5	1.73 57.8%	—
Under 4.5	1.30 76.9%	—
Under 5.5	1.11 90.1%	—

Match center

Paris Saint Germain

Founded 1970

Lorient

Founded 1926

Match center

Paris Saint Germain

W W L W L

25.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 3:0 Angers

22.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 3:0 Nantes

19.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 1:2 Lion

21.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 4:0 Nice

06.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 1:3 Monaco

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

9 Points

Lorient

L W L D L

26.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 2:3 Strasbourg

18.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 2:0 Marseille

12.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 0:2 Lion

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 1:1 Paris FC

21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Lorient 0:1 Toulouse

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.4 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis Saint Germain - Lorient

Paris Saint Germain

1 matches total

Lorient

Paris Saint Germain: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Lorient: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 29.10 18:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (29.10 18:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

29.10 18:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain

1:1

Lorient

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.