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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
19.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction
19.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Paris Saint Germain - Lyon

France Football
Stadium Parc des Princes
Capacity 47 929
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
1 : 2
Finished
Lyon
Lyon
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Paris Saint Germain — 72%

1 · Paris Saint Germain ✓ Pick72.4%
market73%
X · draw17.1%
market16%
2 · Lyon10.5%
market11%

Model estimate: win Paris Saint Germain 72.4%, draw 17.1%, win Lyon 10.5%. Model favourite — Paris Saint Germain.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris Saint Germain - Lyon April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Strongest: Paris Saint Germain - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.30 / X 5.89 / 2 8.91
  • 1X2 market: Paris Saint Germain 73.1% / X 16.2% / Lyon 10.8%
  • Glicko: Paris Saint Germain 72.4% / X 17.1% / Lyon 10.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 38.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 ✓ Pick 73.2%
X 16.2%
2 10.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 67.1%
Under 2.5 32.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 73.4%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Parc des Princes (Paris)
Capacity 47,929

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Paris Saint Germain 72%
💹 Market Paris Saint Germain 7305%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Paris Saint Germain - Lyon

Paris Saint Germain: Win 1.30 Paris Saint Germain: Draw 6.00 Lyon Win: 8.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain bolshe 2.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain menshe 2.5: 1.8…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 36
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Normal Goal | Endrick | assist/sub out: Afonso Moreira Lyon
13' 13' Yellow Card | Ruben Kluivert Lyon
18' 18' Normal Goal | Afonso Moreira | assist/sub out: Endrick Lyon
29' 29' Yellow Card | I. Zabarnyi Paris Saint Germain
30' 30' Yellow Card | L. Beraldo Paris Saint Germain
39' 39' Substitution 1 | Vitinha | assist/sub out: W. Zaire-Emery Paris Saint Germain
59' 59' Substitution 5 | G. Ramos | assist/sub out: O. Dembele Paris Saint Germain
59' 59' Substitution 6 | D. Doue | assist/sub out: K. Kvaratskhelia Paris Saint Germain
Metric Paris Saint Germain Lyon SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.12 0.62 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 0 final
Shots off target 10 1 final
Shots on target 6 5 final
Udary vsego 23 6 final
Fouls soversheno 10 8 final
Zheltye kartochki 5 1 final
Offsides 0 0 final
Paris Saint Germain #1 D. Greif, #9 Endrick, #16 Abner, #17 Afonso Moreira, #19 Moussa Niakhaté, #21 R. Kluivert, #22 Clinton Mata, #23 T. Morton, #44 K. Merah, #98 A. Maitland-Niles
Lyon #2 Achraf Hakimi, #4 Lucas Beraldo, #6 Ilya Zabarnyi, #14 Désiré Doué, #21 Lucas Hernández, #24 Senny Mayulu, #29 Bradley Barcola, #39 M. Safonov, #51 Willian Pacho
Player Team Metric SStats
Achraf Hakimi Lyon football.player.assists 0
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Dribling popytki 4
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Dribling uspeshno 3
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Edinoborstva vsego 1
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Edinoborstva vyigrano 13
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Fouls soversheno 1
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Seyvy 0
Achraf Hakimi Lyon football.player.minutes_played 90
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Tochnost pasov % 3
Achraf Hakimi Lyon Klyuchevye pasy 94
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Paris Saint Germain 74.1% 72.4% market and model agree
Draw 15.8% 17.1% draw risk
Lyon 10.1% 10.5%
xG - 2.32 : 0.76
Total 2.5 Over 38.4% - Under 61.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 72.4% / 17.1% / 10.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,727 / 1,580 Paris Saint Germain / Lyon
RD 85 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.91 market consensus · no value · model 10.5%
X 5.89 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 72.4%
Double chance
X2 3.47 market consensus · no value · model 27.6%
12 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 82.9%
1X 1.07 market consensus · no value · model 89.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.58 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.83 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.28 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.41 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 38.4%
Under 2.5 2.86 market consensus · weak value +76.1% · model 61.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
X 5.70 17.5% 5.80 17.2% 6.19 16.2% 5.50 18.2% 6.00 16.7% 6.00 16.7%
8.10 12.4% 8.30 12.1% 9.75 10.3% 8.50 11.8% 8.50 11.8% 9.50 10.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.01 49.8% 2.04 49.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.78 56.2% 1.71 58.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.50 28.6% 3.64 27.5% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.55 28.2% 3.50 28.6%
home_away 1.13 88.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.15 87.0% 1.12 89.3% 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.09 91.7% 1.05 95.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.75 — — 1.11 90.1%
Over 2.0 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.25 — — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.5 1.40 71.4% — —
Over 3.25 — 1.97 50.8% —
Over 3.5 2.00 50.0% — —
Over 4.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Over 5.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 2.5 2.88 34.7% — —
Under 3.25 — 1.93 51.8% —
Under 3.5 1.80 55.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Under 5.5 1.13 88.5% — —
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
Founded 1970
Lyon
Founded 1950
Match center
Paris Saint Germain

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Lyon
OM O. Mangala Knee injury
Paris Saint Germain Founded: 1970
Lyon Founded: 1950
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
W L W W L
21.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 4:0 NiceNice
06.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 1:3 MonacoMonaco
28.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 1:0 Le HavreLe Havre
21.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 3:0 MetzMetz
13.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 1:3 RennesRennes
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
9 Points
Lyon
W D L D D
12.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 2:0 LorientLorient
05.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 AngersAngers
22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:2 MonacoMonaco
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
08.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lyon 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.6 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis Saint Germain - Lyon

Paris Saint Germain
1 matches total
Lyon
Paris Saint Germain: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lyon: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Paris Saint Germain 3:2 (09.11 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 09.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

09.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
3:2
Lion
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.