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Ligue 1 France

21.02.2026 20:05 UTC Match prediction

21.02.2026 20:05 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain - Metz

France Football

Paris Saint Germain

3 : 0

Finished

Metz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris Saint Germain - Metz February 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Line favourite market consensus: Paris Saint Germain. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.14 / X 9.17 / 2 17.23
1X2 market: Paris Saint Germain 83.9% / X 10.5% / Metz 5.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 70.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%

1 84.0%

X 10.4%

2 5.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%

Over 2.5 70.4%

Under 2.5 29.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.02.2026 20:05 UTC

Match center

Paris Saint Germain - Metz

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 9.26 market consensus · line only

1 1.14 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 6.16 market consensus · line only

12 1.08 market consensus · line only

1X 1.03 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 5.25 market consensus · line only

2 -1 4.32 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.16 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.17 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.33 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 3.17 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.76 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.02 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.14 87.7%
X	9.85 10.2%
	19.54 5.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	1.13 88.5%	1.16 86.2%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%
X	9.00 11.1%	9.90 10.1%	8.00 12.5%	9.10 11.0%	9.85 10.2%	9.85 10.2%
	17.00 5.9%	19.00 5.3%	13.00 7.7%	17.50 5.7%	19.54 5.1%	19.54 5.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	1.74 57.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.74 57.5%	1.77 56.5%	1.75 57.1%
yes	2.07 48.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	2.11 47.4%	2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	6.10 16.4%	5.50 18.2%	6.05 16.5%	6.75 14.8%	6.75 14.8%	5.80 17.2%
home_away	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.07 93.5%
home_draw	1.02 98.0%	1.04 96.2%	1.02 98.0%	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%

Match center

Paris Saint Germain

L W W W W

13.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 1:3 Rennes

08.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 5:0 Marseille

01.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 2:1 Strasbourg

23.01 19:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 1:0 Auxerre

16.01 20:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain 3:0 Lille

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

12 Points

Metz

L D L L L

15.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 1:3 Auxerre

06.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:0 Lille

01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 0:1 Angers

25.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 2:5 Lion

18.01 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Metz 1:2 Strasbourg

0 Wins

1 Draws

4 Losses

0.8 Scored

2.2 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis Saint Germain - Metz

Paris Saint Germain

1 matches total

Metz

Paris Saint Germain: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Metz: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Paris Saint Germain 3:2 (13.12 18:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 13.12 18:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

13.12 18:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain

3:2

Metz