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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
22.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
22.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Paris Saint Germain - Nantes

France Football
Stadium Parc des Princes
Capacity 47 929
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
3 : 0
Finished
Nantes
Nantes
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Paris Saint Germain — 77%

1 · Paris Saint Germain ✓ Pick76.6%
market82%
X · draw15.2%
market12%
2 · Nantes8.2%
market6%

Model estimate: win Paris Saint Germain 76.6%, draw 15.2%, win Nantes 8.2%. Model favourite — Paris Saint Germain.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris Saint Germain - Nantes April 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Strongest: Paris Saint Germain - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.16 / X 7.88 / 2 15.28
  • 1X2 market: Paris Saint Germain 81.6% / X 12.1% / Nantes 6.3%
  • Glicko: Paris Saint Germain 76.6% / X 15.2% / Nantes 8.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 31.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 ✓ Pick 81.8%
X 12.0%
2 6.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 70.6%
Under 2.5 29.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 9/12
Confidence 80.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 22.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Stadium Parc des Princes (Paris)
Capacity 47,929

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Paris Saint Germain 77%
💹 Market Paris Saint Germain 8161%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Paris Saint Germain - Nantes

Paris Saint Germain: Win 1.17 Paris Saint Germain: Draw 7.50 Nantes Win: 15.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain menshe 2.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Penalty | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Hugo López Paris Saint Germain
22' 22' Goal Disallowed - offside | Louis Leroux Nantes
35' 35' Yellow Card | Warren Zaïre-Emery Paris Saint Germain
37' 37' Normal Goal | Désiré Doué | assist/sub out: Achraf Hakimi Paris Saint Germain
41' 41' Yellow Card | Ilya Zabarnyi Paris Saint Germain
46' 46' Yellow Card | Frederic Guilbert S. Pikolon Nantes
50' 50' Normal Goal | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Hugo López Paris Saint Germain
60' 60' Substitution 1 | Achraf Hakimi | assist/sub out: Lucas Hernandez Paris Saint Germain
Metric Paris Saint Germain Nantes SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.17 0.89 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 5 final
Shots off target 4 2 final
Shots on target 6 4 final
Udary vsego 14 11 final
Fouls soversheno 11 8 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 2 2 final
Paris Saint Germain #1 Anthony Lopes, #2 Ali Youssef, #3 Nicolas Cozza, #8 Johann Lepenant, #10 Matthis Abline, #22 Mathieu Acapandié, #24 F. Guilbert, #27 Deiver Machado, #28 Ibrahima Sissoko, #31 Mostafa Mohamed, #66 Louis Leroux
Nantes #2 Achraf Hakimi, #4 Lucas Beraldo, #5 Marquinhos, #6 Ilya Zabarnyi, #7 K. Kvaratskhelia, #10 Ousmane Dembélé, #14 Désiré Doué, #27 Pedro Fernández, #33 Warren Zaïre-Emery, #39 M. Safonov, #87 João Neves
Player Team Metric SStats
Achraf Hakimi Nantes football.player.assists 1
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Dribling popytki 2
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Dribling uspeshno 1
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Fouls na igroke 1
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Seyvy 0
Achraf Hakimi Nantes football.player.minutes_played 60
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Tochnost pasov % 1
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Klyuchevye pasy 52
Achraf Hakimi Nantes Reyting (staryy) 7.5
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Paris Saint Germain 82.8% 76.6% market and model agree
Draw 11.4% 15.2% draw risk
Nantes 5.8% 8.2%
xG - 2.45 : 0.67
Total 2.5 Over 31.2% - Under 68.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 76.6% / 15.2% / 8.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,705 / 1,397 Paris Saint Germain / Nantes
RD 84 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 7.76 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 76.6%
Double chance
X2 4.96 market consensus · no value · model 23.5%
12 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 84.8%
1X 1.03 market consensus · no value · model 91.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 5.25 market consensus · line only
2 -1 4.23 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.16 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 31.2%
Under 2.5 3.20 market consensus · weak value +120.2% · model 68.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.86 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.18 84.8%
X 6.25 16.0%
13.00 7.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.16 86.2% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.19 84.0% 1.14 87.7%
X 7.00 14.3% 8.60 11.6% 7.50 13.3% 7.00 14.3% 7.90 12.7% 8.00 12.5%
15.00 6.7% 17.00 5.9% 13.00 7.7% 13.00 7.7% 18.50 5.4% 16.00 6.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.77 56.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.78 56.2% 1.79 55.9% 1.93 51.8%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.92 52.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.87 53.5% 1.93 51.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 4.75 21.1% 5.40 18.5% 4.80 20.8% 4.50 22.2% 5.30 18.9% 5.00 20.0%
home_away 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.09 91.7% 1.06 94.3%
home_draw 1.03 97.1% 1.03 97.1% 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.02 98.0%
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
Founded 1970
Nantes
Founded 1943
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
L W L W W
19.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 1:2 LionLion
21.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 4:0 NiceNice
06.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 1:3 MonacoMonaco
28.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 1:0 Le HavreLe Havre
21.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 3:0 MetzMetz
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Nantes
D D D L L
19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 1:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
11.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:0 AuxerreAuxerre
05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:0 MetzMetz
22.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 2:3 StrasbourgStrasbourg
07.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Nantes 0:1 AngersAngers
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis Saint Germain - Nantes

Paris Saint Germain
2 matches total
Nantes
Paris Saint Germain: 1 (50%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Nantes: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Paris Saint Germain 1:0 (17.08 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 22.04 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (22.04 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

17.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
1:0
Nantes
22.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
1:1
Nantes
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.