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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
04.01.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
04.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Paris Saint Germain - Paris FC

France Football
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
2 : 1
Finished
Paris FC
Paris FC

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris Saint Germain - Paris FC January 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Line favourite market consensus: Paris Saint Germain. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.14 / X 8.48 / 2 18.67
  • 1X2 market: Paris Saint Germain 83.6% / X 11.3% / Paris FC 5.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 71.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 83.6%
X 11.2%
2 5.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.6%
Over 2.5 71.6%
Under 2.5 28.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Paris Saint Germain - Paris FC

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 8.49 market consensus · line only
1 1.14 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 5.68 market consensus · line only
12 1.08 market consensus · line only
1X 1.02 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 5.65 market consensus · line only
2 -1 4.42 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.14 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 3.30 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.76 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.01 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.15 87.0%
X 8.66 11.6%
20.26 4.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0%
X 8.70 11.5% 9.00 11.1% 8.90 11.2% 7.50 13.3% 8.50 11.8% 8.75 11.4%
18.00 5.6% 17.50 5.7% 21.00 4.8% 17.00 5.9% 19.00 5.3% 24.00 4.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.72 58.1% 1.76 56.8%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 1.87 53.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.13 47.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 6.00 16.7% 5.85 17.1% 5.50 18.2% 6.00 16.7% 6.20 16.1% 5.90 17.0%
home_away 1.06 94.3% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.09 91.7%
home_draw 1.02 98.0% 1.02 98.0% 1.03 97.1% 1.02 98.0% 1.03 97.1% 1.01 99.0%
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
W W L W W
13.12 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 3:2 MetzMetz
06.12 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 5:0 RennesRennes
29.11 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 0:1 MonacoMonaco
22.11 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 3:0 Le HavreLe Havre
09.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain 3:2 LionLion
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
12 Points
Paris FC
L D D L L
13.12 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:3 ToulouseToulouse
07.12 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:0 Le HavreLe Havre
29.11 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 1:1 AuxerreAuxerre
23.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 2:4 LilleLille
07.11 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Paris FC 0:1 RennesRennes
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
2 Points