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Ligue 1 France

26.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction Prediction

26.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Rennes - Nantes

France Football

Stadium Roazhon Park

Referee B. Bastien

Capacity 31 127

Rennes

2 : 1

Finished

Nantes

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Rennes — 63%

1 · Rennes ✓ Pick62.7%

market67%

X · draw22.2%

market20%

2 · Nantes15.2%

market13%

Model estimate: win Rennes 62.7%, draw 22.2%, win Nantes 15.2%. Model favourite — Rennes.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rennes - Nantes April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rennes.

Strongest: Rennes - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.40 / X 4.75 / 2 7.23
1X2 market: Rennes 67.0% / X 19.9% / Nantes 13.1%
Glicko: Rennes 62.7% / X 22.2% / Nantes 15.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 46.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%

1 ✓ Pick 67.2%

X 19.8%

2 13.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%

Over 2.5 58.1%

Under 2.5 41.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 5/6

Confidence 65.7%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 26.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Stadium Roazhon Park (Rennes)

Referee B. Bastien

Capacity 31,127

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Rennes 63%

💹 Market Rennes 6704%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Rennes - Nantes

Rennes: Win 1.40 Rennes: Draw 4.75 Nantes Win: 8.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Rennes bolshe 2.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Rennes menshe 2.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Nantes bolshe 0.5: 1.…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 18

Statistics 24

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

8' 8' Penalty | Esteban Lepaul Rennes

38' 38' Yellow Card | Nicolas Cozza R. Himbert Nantes

40' 40' Normal Goal | Ignatius Ganago | assist/sub out: Nicolas Cozza F. Sacko Nantes

50' 50' Yellow Card | Deiver Machado P. Sander Nantes

59' 59' Goal Disallowed - offside | Esteban Lepaul Rennes

68' 68' Substitution 1 | Alidu Seidu | assist/sub out: Mahamadou Nagida Rennes

68' 68' Substitution 2 | Ludovic Blas | assist/sub out: Sebastian Szymański A. Harrison Rennes

68' 68' Substitution 1 | Mohamed Kaba | assist/sub out: Dehmaine Tabibou Nantes

Metric Rennes Nantes SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.3 2.17 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 10 final

Shots off target 4 6 final

Shots on target 5 8 final

Udary vsego 14 24 final

Fouls soversheno 15 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final

Offsides 5 1 final

Rennes #1 Anthony Lopes, #2 Ali Youssef, #3 Nicolas Cozza, #8 Johann Lepenant, #10 Matthis Abline, #21 Mohamed Kaba, #24 F. Guilbert, #27 Deiver Machado, #28 Ibrahima Sissoko, #37 Ignatius Kpene Ganago, #66 Louis Leroux

Nantes #3 L. Brassier, #7 B. Embolo, #9 E. Lepaul, #10 L. Blas, #11 Mousa Tamari, #21 V. Rongier, #26 Q. Merlin, #30 Brice Samba, #36 Alidu Seidu, #45 M. Camara, #48 A. Ait Boudlal

Player Team Metric SStats

Ali Youssef Rennes football.player.assists 0

Ali Youssef Rennes Dribling popytki 4

Ali Youssef Rennes Edinoborstva vsego 3

Ali Youssef Rennes Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

Ali Youssef Rennes Fouls soversheno 1

Ali Youssef Rennes Seyvy 0

Ali Youssef Rennes football.player.minutes_played 90

Ali Youssef Rennes Tochnost pasov % 1

Ali Youssef Rennes Klyuchevye pasy 38

Ali Youssef Rennes Reyting (staryy) 7

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Rennes 68.5% 62.7% market and model agree

Draw 19.2% 22.2% draw risk

Nantes 12.3% 15.2%

xG - 1.83 : 0.77

Total 2.5 Over 46.7% - Under 53.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.06

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 62.7% / 22.2% / 15.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,604 / 1,394 Rennes / Nantes

RD 74 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.23 market consensus · no value · model 15.2%

X 4.75 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 62.7%

Double chance

X2 2.83 market consensus · no value · model 37.3%

12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 77.9%

1X 1.09 market consensus · no value · model 84.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.89 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.27 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.80 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%

Under 2.5 2.26 market consensus · value +20.5% · model 53.3%

Both teams to score

No 1.93 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.41 70.9%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.40 71.4%
X	4.65 21.5%	5.13 19.5%	4.50 22.2%	4.75 21.1%	4.65 21.5%	5.00 20.0%
	6.80 14.7%	7.80 12.8%	6.50 15.4%	8.00 12.5%	7.60 13.2%	7.50 13.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.90 52.6%	1.89 52.9%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.90 52.6%	1.87 53.5%	2.05 48.8%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.80 55.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.80 35.7%	3.00 33.3%	2.75 36.4%	2.75 36.4%	2.95 33.9%	2.88 34.7%
home_away	1.15 87.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	1.08 92.6%	1.11 90.1%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5	1.20 83.3%	1.17 85.5%
Over 1.75	—	1.21 82.6%
Over 2.0	—	1.27 78.7%
Over 2.25	—	1.44 69.4%
Over 2.5	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%
Over 3.5	2.60 38.5%	—
Over 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	4.33 23.1%	—
Under 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.48 67.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—

Match center

Rennes

Founded 1901

Nantes

Founded 1943

Match center

Rennes

W W W D L

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 3:0 Strasbourg

11.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 2:1 Angers

04.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 4:3 Stade Brestois 29

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 0:0 Metz

15.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Rennes 1:2 Lille

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Nantes

L D D D L

22.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:3 Paris Saint Germain

19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 1:1 Stade Brestois 29

11.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:0 Auxerre

05.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 0:0 Metz

22.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Nantes 2:3 Strasbourg

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyRennes - Nantes

Rennes

2 matches total

Nantes

Rennes: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Nantes: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Rennes 2:1 (18.04 18:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 20.09 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (20.09 15:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 4

Match history

20.09 15:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Rennes

2:2

Nantes

18.04 18:45 UTC

Ligue 1

Rennes

2:1

Nantes

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.