PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
24.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction
24.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Stade Brestois 29 - Lens

France Football
Stadium Stade Francis-Le Blé
Capacity 15 931
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
3 : 3
Finished
Lens
Lens
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lens — 57%

1 · Stade Brestois 2919.4%
X · draw23.4%
2 · Lens ✓ Pick57.2%

Model estimate: win Stade Brestois 29 19.4%, draw 23.4%, win Lens 57.2%. Model favourite — Lens.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Stade Brestois 29 - Lens April 24, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lens.

Strongest: Lens - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.71 / X 3.98 / 2 1.68
  • 1X2 market: Stade Brestois 29 20.1% / X 23.7% / Lens 56.2%
  • Glicko: Stade Brestois 29 19.4% / X 23.4% / Lens 57.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 33.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 20.1%
X 23.7%
2 ✓ Pick 56.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 56.6%
Under 2.5 43.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 57.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 24.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)
Capacity 15,931

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Lens 57%
💹 Market Lens 5617%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Stade Brestois 29 - Lens

Stade Brestois 29: Win 5.00 Stade Brestois 29: Draw 4.00 Lens Win: 1.67 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Stade Brestois 29 bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Stade Brestois 29 menshe 0.5: 2.62 Indivi…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:3
Events 21
Statistics 24
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
0' 0' Yellow Card | J. Dina Ebimbe Stade Brestois 29
7' 7' Normal Goal | D. Guindo | assist/sub out: J. Chotard Stade Brestois 29
24' 24' Normal Goal | L. Tousart | assist/sub out: D. Guindo M. Cash Stade Brestois 29
42' 42' Normal Goal | J. Dina Ebimbe | assist/sub out: L. Ajorque Stade Brestois 29
52' 52' Substitution 1 | F. Sotoca | assist/sub out: F. Thauvin Nikolaos Koutroubis Lens
52' 52' Substitution 2 | R. Aguilar | assist/sub out: S. Abdulhamid S. Baldoni Lens
53' 53' Substitution 3 | A. Masuaku | assist/sub out: S. Baidoo Kamya Praveen Nair Lens
53' 53' Substitution 4 | W. Said | assist/sub out: A. Saint-Maximin R. López Lens
Metric Stade Brestois 29 Lens SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.25 2.76 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 5 final
Shots off target 1 13 final
Shots on target 3 7 final
Udary vsego 6 25 final
Fouls soversheno 7 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final
Offsides 1 3 final
Stade Brestois 29 #5 B. Chardonnet, #7 J. Dina Ebimbe, #8 H. Magnetti, #10 R. Del Castillo, #13 J. Chotard, #19 L. Ajorque, #24 L. Tousart, #27 D. Guindo, #30 G. Coudert, #44 S. Coulibaly, #77 K. Lala
Lens #2 R. Aguilar, #7 F. Sotoca, #8 M. Sangare, #14 M. Udol, #19 A. Sima, #20 M. Sarr, #22 W. Said, #25 I. Ganiou, #27 A. Masuaku, #28 A. Thomasson, #40 Robin Risser
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Bulatovic Lens Seyvy 0
A. Haidara Lens Seyvy 0
A. Masuaku Lens football.player.assists 0
A. Masuaku Lens Dribling popytki 1
A. Masuaku Lens Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Masuaku Lens Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Masuaku Lens Seyvy 0
A. Masuaku Lens football.player.minutes_played 53
A. Masuaku Lens Klyuchevye pasy 45
A. Masuaku Lens Reyting (staryy) 5.3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Stade Brestois 29 19.8% 19.4%
Draw 23.3% 23.4% draw risk
Lens 56.9% 57.2% market and model agree
xG - 0.92 : 1.76
Total 2.5 Over 33.3% - Under 66.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.00
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.00

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.4% / 23.4% / 57.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,504 / 1,646 Stade Brestois 29 / Lens
RD 73 / 77 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 57.2%
X 3.98 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.71 market consensus · no value · model 19.4%
Double chance
X2 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 80.6%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 76.6%
1X 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 42.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.17 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 33.3%
Under 2.5 2.19 market consensus · value +46.0% · model 66.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.14 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.66 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
4.75 21.1% 4.88 20.5% 4.40 22.7% 5.00 20.0% 4.80 20.8% 5.00 20.0%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.26 23.5% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0%
1.66 60.2% 1.74 57.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.09 47.9% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.66 60.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.21 82.6% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 2.15 46.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.10 47.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — 1.23 81.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.29 77.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.48 67.6%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% 1.74 57.5%
Over 3.5 2.62 38.2% —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% —
Match center
Stade Brestois 29
Founded 1950
Lens
Founded 1906
Match center
Stade Brestois 29
D L L L W
19.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 1:1 NantesNantes
04.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 3:4 RennesRennes
21.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 0:3 AuxerreAuxerre
14.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 0:2 MonacoMonaco
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 2:0 Le HavreLe Havre
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
Lens
W L W L W
17.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:2 ToulouseToulouse
04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:3 LilleLille
20.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 5:1 AngersAngers
14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:2 LorientLorient
08.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:0 MetzMetz
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyStade Brestois 29 - Lens

Stade Brestois 29
2 matches total
Lens
Stade Brestois 29: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lens: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Lens 1:3 (29.08 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 29.08 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 6
6 Goals conceded 2

Match history

29.08 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29
1:3
Lens
20.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29
1:3
Lens
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.