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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
19.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction
19.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Strasbourg - Rennes

France Football
Stadium Stade de la Meinau
Capacity 26 109
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
0 : 3
Finished
Rennes
Rennes
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Rennes — 38%

1 · Strasbourg35.8%
X · draw26.2%
2 · Rennes38.0%

Model estimate: win Strasbourg 35.8%, draw 26.2%, win Rennes 38.0%. Model favourite — Rennes.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Strasbourg - Rennes April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rennes.

Strongest: Rennes - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.72 / X 3.63 / 2 2.44
  • 1X2 market: Strasbourg 35.0% / X 26.2% / Rennes 38.9%
  • Glicko: Strasbourg 35.8% / X 26.2% / Rennes 38.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 33.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 34.9%
X 26.2%
2 38.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 57.0%
Under 2.5 43.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 2/4
Confidence 38.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 15:15 UTC
Stadium Stade de la Meinau (Strasbourg)
Capacity 26,109

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Rennes 38%
💹 Market Rennes 3890%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Strasbourg - Rennes

Strasbourg: Win 2.75 Strasbourg: Draw 3.70 Rennes Win: 2.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Strasbourg bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Strasbourg menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Renne…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:3
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 37
min Event Player Team
20' 20' Normal Goal | Esteban Lepaul | assist/sub out: Sebastian Szymański Rennes
44' 44' Yellow Card | Sebastian Szymański Rennes
46' 46' Substitution 1 | David Datro Fofana | assist/sub out: Martial Godo Strasbourg
50' 50' Normal Goal | Breel Embolo | assist/sub out: Esteban Lepaul T. Nianzou Rennes
52' 52' Normal Goal | Mousa Tamari Deniss Dzhenkins Rennes
57' 57' Substitution 2 | Maxi Oyedele | assist/sub out: Samir El Mourabet Strasbourg
57' 57' Substitution 3 | Idrissa Sabaly | assist/sub out: Julio Enciso Strasbourg
57' 57' Substitution 4 | Gessime Yassine | assist/sub out: Andrew Omobamidele Strasbourg
Metric Strasbourg Rennes SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1 4.25 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 7 final
Shots off target 6 10 final
Shots on target 1 9 final
Udary vsego 9 26 final
Fouls soversheno 10 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final
Offsides 6 0 final
Strasbourg #3 L. Brassier, #7 B. Embolo, #9 E. Lepaul, #10 L. Blas, #11 Mousa Tamari, #17 S. Szymański, #26 Q. Merlin, #30 Brice Samba, #36 Alidu Seidu, #45 M. Camara, #48 A. Ait Boudlal
Rennes #8 M. Oyedele, #11 S. Nanasi, #18 J. Mwanga, #24 Lucas Høgsberg, #27 S. Amo-Ameyaw, #39 Mike Penders, #45 Amadou Cissé, #80 G. Yassine, #83 R. Luis
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Omobamidele Rennes football.player.assists 0
A. Omobamidele Rennes Dribling popytki 3
A. Omobamidele Rennes Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Omobamidele Rennes Fouls soversheno 1
A. Omobamidele Rennes Seyvy 0
A. Omobamidele Rennes football.player.minutes_played 33
A. Omobamidele Rennes Klyuchevye pasy 34
A. Omobamidele Rennes Reyting (staryy) 7.5
A. Omobamidele Rennes Bloki 2
A. Omobamidele Rennes Perekhvaty 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Strasbourg 34.8% 35.8%
Draw 26.1% 26.2% draw risk
Rennes 39.0% 38.0% market and model agree
xG - 1.30 : 1.34
Total 2.5 Over 33.9% - Under 66.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.8% / 26.2% / 38.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,578 / 1,589 Strasbourg / Rennes
RD 76 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.44 market consensus · no value · model 38.0%
X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.72 market consensus · no value · model 35.8%
Double chance
X2 1.44 market consensus · no value · model 64.2%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 73.8%
1X 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 62.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.48 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.38 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.69 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 33.9%
Under 2.5 2.21 market consensus · value +46.1% · model 66.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.36 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.54 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.64 37.9% 2.49 40.2% 2.88 34.7% 2.63 38.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.77 36.1%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.85 26.0% 3.71 27.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0% 3.55 28.2%
2.38 42.0% 2.58 38.8% 2.51 39.8% 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.35 42.6% 2.34 42.7% 2.37 42.2% 2.40 41.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.40 41.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.34 42.7%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.58 63.3% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.48 67.6% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.53 65.4% 1.59 62.9% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.0 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.90 52.6% —
Over 3.5 2.65 37.7% — —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 2.00 50.0% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center
Strasbourg
Founded 1906
Rennes
Founded 1901
Match center
Strasbourg
W W D D D
04.04 15:00 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 3:1 NiceNice
22.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 3:2 NantesNantes
15.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 0:0 Paris FCParis FC
07.03 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 0:0 AuxerreAuxerre
27.02 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg 1:1 LensLens
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Rennes
W W D L W
11.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1
Rennes 2:1 AngersAngers
04.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Rennes 4:3 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Rennes 0:0 MetzMetz
15.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1
Rennes 1:2 LilleLille
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Rennes 4:0 NiceNice
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyStrasbourg - Rennes

Strasbourg
1 matches total
Rennes
Strasbourg: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Rennes: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Rennes 1:4 (02.11 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 02.11 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 1

Match history

02.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Strasbourg
1:4
Rennes
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.