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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
10.05.2025 19:00 UTC Match prediction
10.05.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Toulouse - Lens

France Football
Toulouse
Toulouse
1 : 1
Finished
Lens
Lens

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulouse - Lens May 10, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toulouse.

Line favourite market consensus: Toulouse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.31 / X 3.56 / 2 3.19
  • 1X2 market: Toulouse 42.1% / X 27.3% / Lens 30.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.7%
1 42.1%
X 27.3%
2 30.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.3%
Over 2.5 53.5%
Under 2.5 46.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 10.05.2025 19:00 UTC
Match center

Toulouse - Lens

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.19 market consensus · line only
X 3.56 market consensus · line only
1 2.31 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.68 market consensus · line only
12 1.33 market consensus · line only
1X 1.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.08 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.31 43.3%
X 3.56 28.1%
3.19 31.4%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.68 59.5%
home_away 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.81 55.3%
Under 2.5 2.08 48.1%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.66 60.2%
2.31 43.3%
Match center
Toulouse
W D L L L
03.05 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:1 RennesRennes
27.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:0 NantesNantes
20.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 Reims
12.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:2 LilleLille
06.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:3 MarseilleMarseille
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Lens
W L W L W
04.05 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 2:1 LionLion
27.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:4 AuxerreAuxerre
20.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 3:1 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
11.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 0:2 Reims
06.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lens 1:0 Saint EtienneSaint Etienne
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulouse - Lens

Toulouse
0 matches total
Lens
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history