Ligue 1 France

12.04.2026 15:15 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Toulouse - Lille

France Futbol

Stadium Stadium de Toulouse

Capacity 33 150

Toulouse

0 : 4

Finished

Lille

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lille — 41%

1 · Toulouse31.3%

X · draw27.8%

2 · Lille40.9%

Model estimate: win Toulouse 31.3%, draw 27.8%, win Lille 40.9%. Model favourite — Lille.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulouse - Lille 12 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Strongest: Lille - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.30 / X 3.23 / 2 2.28
1X2 market: Toulouse 28.9% / X 29.5% / Lille 41.7%
Glicko: Toulouse 31.3% / X 27.8% / Lille 40.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 28.8%

X 29.5%

2 41.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 43.3%

Under 2.5 56.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 41.6%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 15:15 UTC

Stadium Stadium de Toulouse

Capacity 33,150

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Lille 41%

💹 Market Lille 4167%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Toulouse - Lille

Toulouse: Победа 3.25 Toulouse: Ничья 3.30 Lille Победа: 2.30 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.20 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.67 Индивидуальный тотал голов Toulouse больше 0.5: 1.44 Индивидуальный тотал голов Toulouse меньше 0.5: 2.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов Lille больше 1…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:4

Events 18

Statistics 26

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

23' 23' Normal Goal | Thomas Meunier | assist/sub out: Hakon Arnar Haraldsson Lille

48' 48' Red Card | Mark McKenzie Toulouse

50' 50' Normal Goal | Romain Perraud Arina Malygina Lille

55' 55' Normal Goal | Matías Fernández Lille

59' 59' Substitution 1 | Pape Diop | assist/sub out: Alexis Vossah Toulouse

60' 60' Substitution 2 | Pape Diop | assist/sub out: Alexis Vossah Toulouse

60' 60' Substitution 3 | Aron Dønnum | assist/sub out: Warren Kamanzi Toulouse

63' 63' Yellow Card | Emersonn Toulouse

Metric Toulouse Lille SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 0.96 2.3 final

Заблокированные удары 5 4 final

Удары мимо 3 2 final

Удары в створ 1 9 final

Удары всего 9 15 final

Фолы совершено 13 12 final

Красные карточки 1 0 final

Желтые карточки 2 0 final

Toulouse #1 B. Ozer, #3 Nathan Ngoy, #6 Nabil Bentaleb, #7 Matías Fernández-Pardo, #10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, #12 Thomas Meunier, #15 R. Perraud, #17 Ngal'ayel Mukau, #21 B. Andre, #23 Aïssa Mandi, #27 F. Correia

Lille #1 Guillaume Restes, #2 Rasmus Nicolaisen, #3 M. McKenzie, #10 Yann Gboho, #15 A. Donnum, #19 Djibril Sidibé, #20 Emersonn, #23 Cristian Cásseres Jr., #24 Dayann Methalie, #35 Seny Koumbassa

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bodart Toulouse Сейвы 0

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse football.player.assists 0

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse Дриблинг попытки 1

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse Единоборства всего 3

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse Единоборства выиграно 2

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse Сейвы 0

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse football.player.minutes_played 90

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse Ключевые пасы 118

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse Рейтинг (старый) 7.5

Aïssa Mandi Toulouse Отборы всего 113

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Toulouse 28.6% 31.3%

Draw 29.6% 27.8% draw risk

Lille 41.8% 40.9% market and model agree

xG - 1.08 : 1.27

Total 2.5 Over 38.3% - Under 61.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 31.3% / 27.8% / 40.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,524 / 1,607 Toulouse / Lille

RD 75 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.28 market consensus · no value · model 40.9%

X 3.23 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.30 market consensus · no value · model 31.3%

Double chance

X2 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 68.7%

12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 72.2%

1X 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 59.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.35 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.23 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.63 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.20 market consensus · no value · model 38.3%

Under 2.5 1.68 market consensus · weak value +3.7% · model 61.7%

Both teams to score

No 1.86 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.44 29.1%	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.40 29.4%
Х	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.33 30.0%	3.30 30.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.20 31.3%
П2	2.24 44.6%	2.25 44.4%	2.36 42.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.85 54.1%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.89 52.9%	1.87 53.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.35 74.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.30 76.9%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.34 74.6%	1.29 77.5%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.62 61.7%	1.66 60.2%	1.57 63.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.20 83.3%
ТБ 1.5	1.38 72.5%	—	1.35 74.1%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.45 69.0%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.99 50.3%	—
ТБ 2.5	2.15 46.5%	—	—
ТБ 3.5	3.90 25.6%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
ТМ 2.25	—	1.91 52.4%	—
ТМ 2.5	1.67 59.9%	—	—
ТМ 3.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Toulouse

Founded 1937

Lille

Founded 1944

Match center

Toulouse

ÁD Álex Domínguez Injury

AF A. Francis Broken Leg

Lille

OS O. Sahraoui Groin Injury

HI H. Igamane Knee Injury

Toulouse Founded: 1937

Lille Founded: 1944

Match center

Toulouse

W W L L D

21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 1:0 Lorient

15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 4:3 Metz

07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 0:1 Marseille

28.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 0:1 Rennes

21.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 1:1 Paris FC

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Lille

W W W D W

04.04 19:05 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 3:0 Lens

22.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 2:1 Marseille

15.03 19:45 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 2:1 Rennes

08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 1:1 Lorient

01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Lille 1:0 Nantes

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.6 Conceded

13 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulouse - Lille

Toulouse

3 matches total

Lille

Toulouse: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Lille: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Lille 1:2 (14.09 13:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 14.09 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 3

Match history

14.09 13:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Toulouse

1:2

Lille

12.04 17:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Toulouse

1:2

Lille

05.10 17:00 UTC

Ligue 1

Toulouse

1:2

Lille

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.