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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
21.03.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
21.03.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Toulouse - Lorient

France Football
Toulouse
Toulouse
1 : 0
Finished
Lorient
Lorient

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulouse - Lorient March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toulouse.

Line favourite market consensus: Toulouse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.78 / X 3.41 / 2 4.96
  • 1X2 market: Toulouse 53.1% / X 27.8% / Lorient 19.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 53.2%
X 27.8%
2 19.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 46.2%
Under 2.5 53.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.03.2026 16:00 UTC
Match center

Toulouse - Lorient

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.94 market consensus · line only
X 3.38 market consensus · line only
1 1.80 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.00 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.18 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.05 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.53 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.48 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.86 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.05 48.8%
X 2.99 33.4%
4.72 21.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.72 58.1% 1.79 55.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.82 55.0%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.55 28.2% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3%
4.90 20.4% 4.80 20.8% 5.28 18.9% 4.40 22.7% 5.25 19.1% 5.10 19.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.14 87.7%
Match center
Toulouse
W L L D L
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 4:3 MetzMetz
07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
28.02 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 RennesRennes
21.02 18:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:1 Paris FCParis FC
15.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:2 Le HavreLe Havre
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Lorient
W D D D W
14.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:1 LensLens
08.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 1:1 LilleLille
01.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:2 AuxerreAuxerre
22.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 3:3 NiceNice
15.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Lorient 2:0 AngersAngers
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulouse - Lorient

Toulouse
1 matches total
Lorient
Toulouse: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Lorient: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 09.11 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (09.11 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

09.11 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse
1:1
Lorient