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Ligue 1
Ligue 1 France
25.04.2026 19:05 UTC Match prediction
25.04.2026 19:05 UTC
Finished

Ligue 1

France

Toulouse - Monaco

France Football
Stadium Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity 33 150
Toulouse
Toulouse
2 : 2
Finished
Monaco
Monaco
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Monaco — 47%

1 · Toulouse27.3%
X · draw26.0%
2 · Monaco46.7%

Model estimate: win Toulouse 27.3%, draw 26.0%, win Monaco 46.7%. Model favourite — Monaco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulouse - Monaco April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Monaco.

Strongest: Monaco - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.33 / X 3.63 / 2 2.06
  • 1X2 market: Toulouse 28.3% / X 26.0% / Monaco 45.7%
  • Glicko: Toulouse 27.3% / X 26.0% / Monaco 46.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 41.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 28.3%
X 26.0%
2 45.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 56.6%
Under 2.5 43.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 46.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 25.04.2026 19:05 UTC
Stadium Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity 33,150

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Monaco 47%
💹 Market Monaco 4570%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Toulouse - Monaco

Toulouse: Win 3.30 Toulouse: Draw 3.50 Monaco Win: 2.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Toulouse bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Toulouse menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Monaco bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 37
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Normal Goal | J. Teze | assist/sub out: S. Adingra Monaco
18' 18' Normal Goal | L. Camara | assist/sub out: M. Akliouche Monaco
31' 31' Yellow Card | Charlie Cresswell Toulouse
61' 61' Normal Goal | J. Russell-Rowe | assist/sub out: D. Methalie Toulouse
61' 61' Substitution 2 | A. Fati | assist/sub out: A. Golovin Monaco
62' 62' Yellow Card | C. Mawissa Monaco
66' 66' Yellow Card | R. Nicolaisen Katerina Tsygurova Toulouse
74' 74' Substitution 5 | J. Russell-Rowe | assist/sub out: Emersonn Toulouse
Metric Toulouse Monaco SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.75 0.74 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 0 final
Shots off target 8 3 final
Shots on target 5 5 final
Udary vsego 18 8 final
Fouls soversheno 17 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final
Offsides 0 0 final
Toulouse #1 L. Hradecky, #4 J. Teze, #5 T. Kehrer, #6 D. Zakaria, #9 F. Balogun, #11 Maghnes Akliouche, #13 C. Mawissa, #15 Lamine Camara, #24 S. Adingra, #25 W. Faes, #31 A. Fati
Monaco #1 Guillaume Restes, #2 Rasmus Nicolaisen, #3 M. McKenzie, #4 C. Cresswell, #11 Santiago Hidalgo, #13 Jacen Russell Rowe, #15 A. Donnum, #23 Cristian Cásseres Jr., #24 Dayann Methalie, #45 Alexis Vossah
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Donnum Monaco football.player.assists 0
A. Donnum Monaco Dribling popytki 11
A. Donnum Monaco Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Donnum Monaco Edinoborstva vsego 2
A. Donnum Monaco Edinoborstva vyigrano 14
A. Donnum Monaco Fouls soversheno 2
A. Donnum Monaco Fouls na igroke 2
A. Donnum Monaco Seyvy 0
A. Donnum Monaco football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Donnum Monaco Tochnost pasov % 4
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Toulouse 28.1% 27.3%
Draw 25.3% 26.0% draw risk
Monaco 46.6% 46.7% market and model agree
xG - 1.07 : 1.48
Total 2.5 Over 41.6% - Under 58.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 27.3% / 26.0% / 46.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,508 / 1,583 Toulouse / Monaco
RD 74 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%
X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.33 market consensus · no value · model 27.3%
Double chance
X2 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%
1X 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 53.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 41.6%
Under 2.5 2.19 market consensus · value +28.0% · model 58.4%
Both teams to score
No 2.29 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.40 29.4% 3.52 28.4% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4%
X 3.60 27.8% 3.91 25.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7%
2.02 49.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 2.00 50.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.32 43.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.25 44.4%
yes 1.55 64.5% 1.56 64.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.56 64.1% 1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.25 80.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.77 56.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.75 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.25 — 1.47 68.0%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% 1.73 57.8%
Over 3.5 2.62 38.2% —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% —
Match center
Toulouse
Founded 1937
Monaco
Founded 1919
Match center
Toulouse
L L W W L
17.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 2:3 LensLens
12.04 15:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:4 LilleLille
21.03 16:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 1:0 LorientLorient
15.03 16:15 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 4:3 MetzMetz
07.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse 0:1 MarseilleMarseille
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.2 Conceded
6 Points
Monaco
D L W W W
19.04 13:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:2 AuxerreAuxerre
10.04 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 1:4 Paris FCParis FC
05.04 18:45 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
22.03 14:00 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:1 LionLion
14.03 20:05 UTC Ligue 1
Monaco 2:0 Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulouse - Monaco

Toulouse
1 matches total
Monaco
Toulouse: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Monaco: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Monaco 0:1 (25.10 17:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 25.10 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

25.10 17:00 UTC Ligue 1
Toulouse
0:1
Monaco
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.