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Ligue 1 France

21.02.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction

21.02.2026 18:00 UTC

Finished

Ligue 1

Toulouse - Paris FC

France Football

Toulouse

1 : 1

Finished

Paris FC

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulouse - Paris FC February 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toulouse.

Line favourite market consensus: Toulouse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.02 / X 3.32 / 2 4.05
1X2 market: Toulouse 47.4% / X 28.9% / Paris FC 23.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 56.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.3%

1 47.5%

X 28.9%

2 23.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.5%

Over 2.5 43.1%

Under 2.5 56.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.02.2026 18:00 UTC

Match center

Toulouse - Paris FC

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.07 market consensus · line only

X 3.33 market consensus · line only

1 2.02 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.84 market consensus · line only

12 1.35 market consensus · line only

1X 1.26 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.40 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.92 market consensus · line only

2 +1 8.40 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.24 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.83 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.94 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.02 49.5%
X	3.38 29.6%
	4.18 23.9%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	2.03 49.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.02 49.5%	2.02 49.5%	2.02 49.5%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.45 29.0%	3.30 30.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.38 29.6%	3.38 29.6%
	3.95 25.3%	4.21 23.8%	3.90 25.6%	4.15 24.1%	4.18 23.9%	4.18 23.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	1.87 53.5%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.88 53.2%	1.83 54.6%
yes	1.90 52.6%	1.93 51.8%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.99 50.3%	1.91 52.4%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	1.86 53.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.86 53.8%	1.86 53.8%	1.80 55.6%
home_away	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.35 74.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.27 78.7%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%

Match center

Toulouse

L L D W W

15.02 14:00 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 1:2 Le Havre

08.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 0:1 Angers

01.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 0:0 Auxerre

25.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 2:0 Stade Brestois 29

17.01 18:00 UTC Ligue 1

Toulouse 5:1 Nice

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

0.8 Conceded

7 Points

Paris FC

L D D D W

14.02 20:05 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 0:5 Lens

08.02 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 0:0 Auxerre

31.01 16:00 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 2:2 Marseille

25.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 0:0 Angers

18.01 16:15 UTC Ligue 1

Paris FC 2:1 Nantes

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulouse - Paris FC

Toulouse

1 matches total

Paris FC

Toulouse: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Paris FC: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Toulouse 3:0 (13.12 20:05 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 13.12 20:05 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 3

Match history

13.12 20:05 UTC

Ligue 1

Toulouse

3:0

Paris FC