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Ligue 2
Ligue 2 France
04.04.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Ligue 2

France

Nancy - Saint Etienne

France Football
Stadium Stade Marcel Picot
Capacity 20 087
Nancy
Nancy
1 : 1
Finished
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Saint Etienne — 49%

1 · Nancy24.6%
X · draw26.2%
2 · Saint Etienne49.2%

Model estimate: win Nancy 24.6%, draw 26.2%, win Saint Etienne 49.2%. Model favourite — Saint Etienne.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nancy - Saint Etienne April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Saint Etienne.

Strongest: Saint Etienne - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.86 / X 3.27 / 2 1.93
  • 1X2 market: Nancy 24.2% / X 28.2% / Saint Etienne 47.6%
  • Glicko: Nancy 24.6% / X 26.2% / Saint Etienne 49.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 78.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 23.9%
X 28.2%
2 47.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 50.5%
Under 2.5 49.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 49.8%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 18:00 UTC
Stadium Stade Marcel Picot (Nancy)
Capacity 20,087

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Saint Etienne 49%
💹 Market Saint Etienne 4762%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nancy - Saint Etienne

Nancy: Win 3.60 Nancy: Draw 3.25 Saint Etienne Win: 1.85 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.85 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.95 Individualnyy total golov Nancy bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Nancy menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Saint Etienne bol…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 15
Statistics 22
Lineups 3
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Normal Goal | Z. Fdaouch Nancy
10' 10' Yellow Card Saint Etienne
46' 46' Substitution 1 | D. Appiah | assist/sub out: A. Moueffek Pol Tristán Saint Etienne
46' 46' Substitution 2 | M. Nadé | assist/sub out: C. Lamba C. Walton Saint Etienne
51' 51' Yellow Card | J. Gelin Rômulo Nancy
61' 61' Substitution 3 | K. Pedro | assist/sub out: E. Annan Saint Etienne
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Z. Ztouti | assist/sub out: T. Bouriaud Nancy
68' 68' Substitution 6 | Z. Davitashvili | assist/sub out: J. Duffus Saint Etienne
Metric Nancy Saint Etienne SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final
Shots off target 3 6 final
Shots on target 2 5 final
Udary vsego 6 14 final
Fouls soversheno 9 21 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 1 3 final
Ball possession, % 33 67 final
Nancy #3 J. Bourgault
Saint Etienne #26 J. Le Cardinal
Player Team Metric SStats
J. Bourgault Nancy football.player.assists 0
J. Bourgault Nancy Edinoborstva vsego 2
J. Bourgault Nancy Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
J. Bourgault Nancy Seyvy 0
J. Bourgault Nancy football.player.minutes_played 73
J. Bourgault Nancy Klyuchevye pasy 17
J. Bourgault Nancy Reyting (staryy) 6.7
J. Bourgault Nancy Otbory vsego 12
E. Annan Saint Etienne football.player.assists 0
E. Annan Saint Etienne Dribling popytki 3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nancy 22.1% 24.6%
Draw 27.9% 26.2% draw risk
Saint Etienne 50.0% 49.2% market and model agree
xG - 0.97 : 1.49
Total 2.5 Over 78.7% - Under 21.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.6% / 26.2% / 49.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,406 / 1,593 Nancy / Saint Etienne
RD 77 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 49.2%
X 3.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.86 market consensus · no value · model 24.6%
Double chance
X2 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 75.4%
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 73.8%
1X 1.82 market consensus · no value · model 50.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.24 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.05 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.97 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.66 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · value +48.0% · model 78.7%
Under 2.5 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%
Both teams to score
No 2.01 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
3.20 31.3% 4.28 23.4% 3.60 27.8% 4.55 22.0% 3.60 27.8% 4.30 23.3%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.24 30.9% 3.25 30.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.24 30.9%
1.97 50.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 1.96 51.0% 2.06 48.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.03 49.3% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.78 56.2% 1.68 59.5% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet SBO
draw_away 1.19 84.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.19 84.0% 1.23 81.3%
home_away 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.29 77.5% 1.32 75.8% 1.23 81.3%
home_draw 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5 — 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.0 — 1.37 73.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.59 62.9%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%
Over 2.75 — 1.98 50.5%
Over 3.0 — 2.29 43.7%
Over 3.25 — 2.52 39.7%
Over 3.5 — 2.76 36.2%
Over 3.75 — 3.28 30.5%
Over 4.0 — 4.33 23.1%
Over 4.25 — 4.65 21.5%
Under 2.5 1.97 50.8% —
Match center
Nancy
Founded 1967
Saint Etienne
Founded 1920
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNancy - Saint Etienne

Nancy
0 matches total
Saint Etienne
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.