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Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Lithuania: Liga I Standings
28.07.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Lithuania: Liga I Standings

Zalgiris Vilnius B - Minija Kretinga

Football
Z
Zalgiris Vilnius B
1 : 0
Finished
Minija Kretinga
Minija Kretinga
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Minija Kretinga — 66%

Pure model vs market (2 · Minija Kretinga): model 43% · market 41% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Zalgiris Vilnius B14.4%
market47%
X · draw19.3%
market12%
2 · Minija Kretinga ✓ Pick66.3%
market41%

Model estimate: win Zalgiris Vilnius B 14.4%, draw 19.3%, win Minija Kretinga 66.3%. Model favourite — Minija Kretinga.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Minija Kretinga (odds1.35) Score 0:2 confidence 62% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Miniya: probability 62% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.35)
  • • no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Zalgiris Vilnius B - Minija Kretinga July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Zalgiris Vilnius B.

Line favourite Fonbet: Zalgiris Vilnius B. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.17 / X 4.70 / 2 1.35
  • Glicko: Zalgiris Vilnius B 14.4% / X 19.3% / Minija Kretinga 66.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 80.8%
1 47.3%
X 11.8%
2 ✓ Pick 41.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Zalgiris Vilnius B 1 : 2 Minija Kretinga
17.24
X4.85
21.32

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
16 predictions Choose an outcome
1 0% 0
X 0% 0
2 100% 7
handicap1 handicap2:-1_5 1.98 (3)
Total TB 2.5 1.46 (1) - TM 3 1.88 (1) - TB 4.5 3.85 (1)
total_t1_under total_t1_over:1_5 3.94 (1)
total_under_half1 TB 1 1.46 (1) - TB 1.5 2.20 (1)
Match center
Start 28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Minija Kretinga 100%
📐 Math model Minija Kretinga 66%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Zalgiris Vilnius B - Minija Kretinga

Form 4/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 7 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 66.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.210 / LogLoss 1.938
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 66.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.210 / LogLoss 1.938
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 66.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.210 / LogLoss 1.938
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 66.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.210 / LogLoss 1.938
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Zalgiris Vilnius B 13.1% 14.4%
Draw 19.1% 19.3% draw risk
Minija Kretinga 67.8% 66.3% market and model agree
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 14.4% / 19.3% / 66.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,632 / 1,815 Zalgiris Vilnius B / Minija Kretinga
RD 203 / 238 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,227-2,037 / 1,340-2,291 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 66.3%
X 4.70 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.17 Fonbet · no value · model 14.4%
Double chance
12 1.14 Fonbet · no value · model 80.7%
1X 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 33.7%
X2 4.15 Fonbet · weak value +255.3% · model 85.6%
Handicap
2 -1 1.70 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.40 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 2.05 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.25 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 7.40 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.90 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
12 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7%
1x 3.00 33.3% 1.03 97.1%
x2 1.07 93.5% 4.15 24.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
6.50 15.4%
X 2.54 39.4%
1.78 56.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.22 45.1%
Under 1.5 1.59 62.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-4, avg 3.6 gls
2026-03-14 · Zhalgiris Vilnyus B 0:4 Miniya Kretinga
2025-10-24 · Zhalgiris Vilnyus B 0:1 Miniya Kretinga
2025-06-17 · Zhalgiris Vilnyus B 4:1 Miniya Kretinga
2023-10-15 · Zhalgiris Vilnyus B 2:3 Miniya Kretinga
2023-05-27 · Zhalgiris Vilnyus B 0:3 Miniya Kretinga
Source: ruscore

Odds · 3 bookmakers

Best price: 1 10 (Winline) · X 6.2 (Winline) · 2 1.43 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Winline 10 6.2 1.19
Betcity 5.4 4.7 1.43
Liga Stavok 10 6.2 1.2
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Zalgiris Vilnius B
W W L W
21.07 14:00 UTC Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Zalgiris Vilnius B 2:0 Khegelmann Litauen 2
02.07 13:00 UTC Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Zalgiris Vilnius B 3:1 Khegelmann Litauen 2
26.06 13:30 UTC Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Zalgiris Vilnius B 1:2 BE1 NFA
13.06 14:00 UTC Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Zalgiris Vilnius B 2:1 GarliavaGarliava
3 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Minija Kretinga
W W W
18.07 13:00 UTC Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Minija Kretinga 2:1 Yonava
26.06 14:30 UTC Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Minija Kretinga 1:0 GarliavaGarliava
13.06 12:00 UTC Lithuania: Liga I Standings
Minija Kretinga 3:0 BFA Vilnyus
3 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.3 Conceded
9 Points