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Lithuania. Premier League
Lithuania. Premier League
01.08.2026 15:45 UTC
01.08.2026 15:45 UTC
Not started

Lithuania. Premier League

Hegelmann Litauen - TransINVEST Vilnius

Football
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
- : -
Not started
T
TransINVEST Vilnius
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 TransINVEST Vilnius — 48%

Pure model vs market (2 · TransINVEST Vilnius): model 41% · market 49% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Hegelmann Litauen24.8%
X · draw26.9%
2 · TransINVEST Vilnius48.3%

Model estimate: win Hegelmann Litauen 24.8%, draw 26.9%, win TransINVEST Vilnius 48.3%. Model favourite — TransINVEST Vilnius.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.42) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.42)
  • • edge over the line +21 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hegelmann Litauen - TransINVEST Vilnius August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: TransINVEST Vilnius. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.80 / X 3.50 / 2 1.90

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 24.5%
X 26.6%
2 49.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

A Lyga
League table
Hegelmann Litauen
#823 ptsGP 234-11-825:37
ARRAY
TransINVEST Vilnius
#538 ptsGP 2311-5-738:28
ARRAY
Best price across 10 books
1 3.92 1xBet
X 3.60 Betfair
2 1.98 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Hegelmann Litauen
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.80 xG 1.04 xGA 1.65
TransINVEST Vilnius
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.40 xG 1.43 xGA 1.30

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Hegelmann Litauen
Rating 1509 xG 0.97 Win 23%
TransINVEST Vilnius
Rating 1587 xG 1.59 Win 52%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 15:45 UTC
Market 1 24.5% @ 3.80 / X 26.6% @ 3.50 / 2 49.0% @ 1.90
Match center

Hegelmann Litauen - TransINVEST Vilnius

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Hegelmann Litauen 24.1% 24.8%
Draw 27.2% 26.9% draw risk
TransINVEST Vilnius 48.7% 48.3% market and model agree
xG - 0.97 : 1.59

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.8% / 26.9% / 48.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,377 / 1,539 Hegelmann Litauen / Transinvest
RD 185 / 181 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,007-1,747 / 1,177-1,901 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 48.3%
X 3.42 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.80 market consensus · no value · model 24.8%
Double chance
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%
1X 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 51.7%
X2 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 75.2%
Handicap
2 -1 2.60 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.39 market consensus · line only
1 +1 1.46 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.75 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.00 50.0%
yes 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7%
1x 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6%
x2 1.19 84.0% 1.22 82.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.52 22.1%
X 2.12 47.2%
2.40 41.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.76 56.8%
Under 1 1.95 51.3%
Match center
Hegelmann Litauen
L W L D D
27.07 13:45 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
Hegelmann Litauen 2:3 Zhalgiris
24.07 14:00 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
Hegelmann Litauen 2:0 FA Shyaulyay
20.07 13:45 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
Hegelmann Litauen 1:5 Suduva
04.07 11:00 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
Hegelmann Litauen 1:1 PanevezhisPanevezhis
14.06 09:15 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
Hegelmann Litauen 1:1 Kauno ZhalgirisKauno Zhalgiris
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
TransINVEST Vilnius
W L L D W
26.07 13:45 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
TransINVEST Vilnius 1:0 Dzhyugas Telshyay
19.07 14:00 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
TransINVEST Vilnius 1:3 Zhalgiris
12.07 13:45 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
TransINVEST Vilnius 1:3 Banga
05.07 13:45 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
TransINVEST Vilnius 0:0 Suduva
12.06 13:30 UTC Lithuania: TOPLYGA Standings
TransINVEST Vilnius 2:1 PanevezhisPanevezhis
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points