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28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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Friendly. Top Clubs

Al Nejmeh - Al Ahed

Football
Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
- : -
Not started
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Al Nejmeh — 59%

Pure model vs market (1 · Al Nejmeh): model 60% · market 59% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Al Nejmeh ✓ Pick58.9%
market59%
X · draw24.3%
market25%
2 · Al Ahed16.8%
market16%

Model estimate: win Al Nejmeh 58.9%, draw 24.3%, win Al Ahed 16.8%. Model favourite — Al Nejmeh.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Al Nejmeh (odds2.01) Score 3:0 confidence 75%
  • • Model backs Nedzhmekh: probability 75% vs 50% on the line (odds 2.01)
  • • edge over the line +25 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 3:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al Nejmeh - Al Ahed July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Al Nejmeh.

Line favourite market consensus: Al Nejmeh. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.51 / X 3.61 / 2 5.50
  • 1X2 market: Al Nejmeh 58.9% / X 24.8% / Al Ahed 16.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 12.1%
1 ✓ Pick 59.1%
X 24.7%
2 16.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.87 ↓ 1.70
1X2 X 3.70 ↑ 3.75
1X2 P2 3.60 ↑ 4.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Al Nejmeh 3 : 0 Al Ahed
11.40
X3.90
27.65

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

LIVE

Match momentum (live)

0:0 56'
Al Nejmeh Al Ahed
2Attacks3
2Dangerous attacks2
1Shots on target0
7%Control (ball-safe)6%
1Corners0
0Fouls0

Live momentum from Sportradar (attacks/shots/control). Updates during the match.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Al Nejmeh 59%
💹 Market Al Nejmeh 5892%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Al Nejmeh - Al Ahed

Form 4/3 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Al Nejmeh 58.8% 58.9% market and model agree
Draw 24.6% 24.3% draw risk
Al Ahed 16.7% 16.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 58.9% / 24.3% / 16.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,684 / 1,309 Al Nejmeh / Al Ahed
RD 204 / 211 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,276-2,092 / 888-1,730 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.30 Fonbet · no value · model 16.8%
X 3.75 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.70 Fonbet · no value · model 58.9%
Double chance
12 1.23 Fonbet · no value · model 75.7%
1X 1.18 Fonbet · no value · model 83.2%
X2 2.02 Fonbet · no value · model 41.1%
Handicap
2 -1 1.60 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.90 Fonbet · line only
2 0 3.10 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.10 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.65 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Dafabet
1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.55 64.5%
X 3.64 27.5% 3.70 27.0% 3.65 27.4% 3.80 26.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.80 26.3%
6.25 16.0% 5.25 19.1% 5.20 19.2% 6.00 16.7% 5.00 20.0% 5.60 17.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.10 47.6% 1.63 61.4%
yes 1.65 60.6% 2.14 46.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.11 90.1% 1.07 93.5% 1.18 84.8%
x2 2.35 42.6% 2.70 37.0% 2.02 49.5%

Exact Score

Outcome 1xBet
0_0 8.50 11.8%
0_1 12.00 8.3%
0_10 65.00 1.5%
0_2 31.00 3.2%
0_3 65.00 1.5%
0_4 65.00 1.5%
0_5 65.00 1.5%
0_6 65.00 1.5%
0_7 65.00 1.5%
0_8 65.00 1.5%
0_9 65.00 1.5%
1_0 5.50 18.2%
1_1 6.50 15.4%
1_10 65.00 1.5%
1_2 15.00 6.7%
1_3 55.00 1.8%
1_4 65.00 1.5%
1_5 65.00 1.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 7-1-2, avg 2.4 gls
2026-07-16 · Neymekh 2:0 Al-Akhed
2026-06-12 · Neymekh 1:0 Al-Akhed
2025-11-01 · Neymekh 4:0 Al-Akhed
2025-07-03 · Neymekh 4:1 Al-Akhed
2025-05-18 · Neymekh 1:1 Al-Akhed
Source: ruscore

Odds · 2 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.56 (Winline) · X 3.7 (Winline) · 2 5.5 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Winline 1.56 3.7 5.4
Betcity 1.55 3.7 5.5
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Al Nejmeh
W D W D
25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Al Nejmeh 2:1 JwayyaJwayya
20.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Al Nejmeh 1:1 Al-AnsarAl-Ansar
16.07 12:30 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Al Nejmeh 2:0 Al-AkhedAl-Akhed
12.07 16:00 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Al Nejmeh 0:0 JwayyaJwayya
2 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.3 Scored
0.5 Conceded
8 Points
Al Ahed
D L L
24.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Al Ahed 1:1 Al-AnsarAl-Ansar
20.07 12:30 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Al Ahed 0:2 JwayyaJwayya
16.07 12:30 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Al Ahed 0:2 NedzhmekhNedzhmekh
0 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.3 Scored
1.7 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAl Nejmeh - Al Ahed

Al Nejmeh
1 matches total
Al Ahed
Al Nejmeh: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Al Ahed: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Nedzhmekh 2:0 (16.07 12:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 16.07 12:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

16.07 12:30 UTC LIVAN: Premier League - Chempionship - Playoff Standings
Nedzhmekh
2:0
Al-Akhed