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Major League Soccer
Major League Soccer USA
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Major League Soccer

USA

Atlanta United FC - Columbus Crew

USA Football
Stadium Mersedes-Bents Stadium
Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC
1 : 3
Finished
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Columbus Crew — 42%

1 · Atlanta United FC31.1%
X · draw27.1%
2 · Columbus Crew41.7%

Model estimate: win Atlanta United FC 31.1%, draw 27.1%, win Columbus Crew 41.7%. Model favourite — Columbus Crew.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atlanta United FC - Columbus Crew April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Columbus Crew.

Strongest: Columbus Crew - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.85 / X 3.48 / 2 2.29
  • 1X2 market: Atlanta United FC 32.6% / X 26.7% / Columbus Crew 40.7%
  • Glicko: Atlanta United FC 31.1% / X 27.1% / Columbus Crew 41.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 80.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 32.6%
X 26.7%
2 40.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5 55.1%
Under 2.5 44.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 41.7%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Stadium Mersedes-Bents Stadium (Atlanta)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Columbus Crew 42%
💹 Market Columbus Crew 4065%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Atlanta United FC - Columbus Crew

Atlanta United FC: Win 2.75 Atlanta United FC: Draw 3.60 Columbus Crew Win: 2.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.70 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Atlanta United FC bolshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Atlanta United FC menshe 1.5: 1.…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:3
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 10
min Event Player Team
0' 0' Yellow Card | D. Chambost Columbus Crew
48' 48' Normal Goal | W. Abou Ali Kamonvan Yodpetch Columbus Crew
53' 53' Normal Goal Columbus Crew
58' 58' Substitution 1 | William Reilly | assist/sub out: C. Sanchez Atlanta United FC
58' 58' Substitution 2 | T. Muyumba | assist/sub out: A. Fortune Atlanta United FC
60' 60' Normal Goal | A. Miranchuk Walter Atlanta United FC
61' 61' Normal Goal | M. Arfsten Columbus Crew
68' 68' Substitution 1 | M. Arfsten | assist/sub out: H. Picard Columbus Crew
Metric Atlanta United FC Columbus Crew SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.24 1.46 final
Zablokirovannye udary 0 2 final
Shots off target 3 7 final
Shots on target 4 7 final
Udary vsego 7 16 final
Fouls soversheno 9 9 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 2 4 final
Columbus Crew #7 D. Chambost, #10 D. Rossi, #18 M. Amundsen, #25 S. Zawadzki, #27 M. Arfsten, #28 P. Schulte, #31 Steven Moreira
Player Team Metric SStats
D. Chambost Columbus Crew football.player.assists 1
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Dribling popytki 2
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Seyvy 0
D. Chambost Columbus Crew football.player.minutes_played 85
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Tochnost pasov % 3
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Klyuchevye pasy 55
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Reyting (staryy) 7.5
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Shots on target 1
D. Chambost Columbus Crew Bloki 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Atlanta United FC 31.8% 31.1%
Draw 26.6% 27.1% draw risk
Columbus Crew 41.6% 41.7% market and model agree
xG - 1.12 : 1.34
Total 2.5 Over 80.4% - Under 19.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 31.1% / 27.1% / 41.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,397 / 1,446 Atlanta United FC / Columbus Crew
RD 133 / 131 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.29 market consensus · no value · model 41.7%
X 3.48 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.85 market consensus · no value · model 31.1%
Double chance
X2 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 68.9%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%
1X 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 58.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.28 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.56 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.71 market consensus · value +37.4% · model 80.4%
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · no value · model 19.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.28 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.85 35.1% 2.65 37.7% 2.80 35.7% 3.10 32.3% 2.88 34.7% 2.80 35.7%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.65 27.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.30 30.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.40 29.4%
2.28 43.9% 2.33 42.9% 2.25 44.4% 2.37 42.2% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.25 44.4% 2.29 43.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.37 42.2% 2.25 44.4% 2.24 44.6% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5%
yes 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.55 64.5% 1.56 64.1% 1.55 64.5% 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
draw_away 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.58 63.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% — 1.70 58.8%
Over 2.75 — 1.97 50.8% —
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% — 2.75 36.4%
Over 4.5 5.25 19.1% — 5.00 20.0%
Over 5.5 — — 11.00 9.1%
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.92 52.1% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.15 87.0% — —
Match center
Atlanta United FC
Founded 2014
Columbus Crew
Founded 1996
Match center
Atlanta United FC
JB J. Berrocal Hamstring Injury
SS Sergio Santos Illness
Columbus Crew
MF M. Farsi Hernia
Atlanta United FC Founded: 2014
Columbus Crew Founded: 1996
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.