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Major League Soccer
Major League Soccer USA
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Major League Soccer

USA

Charlotte - Philadelphia Union

USA Football
Stadium Bank of Amerika Stadium
Charlotte
Charlotte
2 : 1
Finished
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Charlotte — 41%

1 · Charlotte41.3%
X · draw26.6%
2 · Philadelphia Union32.2%

Model estimate: win Charlotte 41.3%, draw 26.6%, win Philadelphia Union 32.2%. Model favourite — Charlotte.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Charlotte - Philadelphia Union April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Charlotte.

Strongest: Charlotte - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.12 / X 3.48 / 2 3.17
  • 1X2 market: Charlotte 43.9% / X 26.8% / Philadelphia Union 29.3%
  • Glicko: Charlotte 41.3% / X 26.6% / Philadelphia Union 32.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 80.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 43.9%
X 26.7%
2 29.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 51.6%
Under 2.5 48.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 43.0%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Stadium Bank of Amerika Stadium (Sharlott)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Charlotte 41%
💹 Market Charlotte 4389%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Charlotte - Philadelphia Union

Charlotte: Win 2.25 Charlotte: Draw 3.50 Philadelphia Union Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.75 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.05 Individualnyy total golov Charlotte bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Charlotte menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total gol…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 24
Lineups 16
Metric Charlotte Philadelphia Union SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.46 1.71 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 7 final
Shots off target 2 7 final
Shots on target 5 3 final
Udary vsego 9 17 final
Fouls soversheno 10 22 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 4 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Charlotte #5 J. Sery Larsen, #9 B. Damiani, #10 M. Iloski, #19 I. Vassilev, #21 D. Jean-Jacques, #23 E. Alladoh, #26 N. Harriel, #29 O. Makhanya, #39 F. Westfield
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Rick Charlotte Seyvy 0
B. Bender Charlotte Seyvy 0
B. Damiani Charlotte football.player.assists 0
B. Damiani Charlotte Dribling popytki 4
B. Damiani Charlotte Dribling uspeshno 1
B. Damiani Charlotte Edinoborstva vyigrano 13
B. Damiani Charlotte Fouls na igroke 1
B. Damiani Charlotte Seyvy 0
B. Damiani Charlotte football.player.minutes_played 83
B. Damiani Charlotte Tochnost pasov % 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Charlotte 44.4% 41.3% market and model agree
Draw 26.2% 26.6% draw risk
Philadelphia Union 29.4% 32.2%
xG - 1.37 : 1.18
Total 2.5 Over 80.1% - Under 19.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.3% / 26.6% / 32.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,562 / 1,373 Charlotte / Philadelphia Union
RD 130 / 131 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.17 market consensus · no value · model 32.2%
X 3.48 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.12 market consensus · no value · model 41.3%
Double chance
X2 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 58.8%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 73.4%
1X 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 67.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.32 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.13 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.88 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.84 market consensus · value +47.3% · model 80.1%
Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 19.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.10 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.12 47.2% 2.06 48.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.18 45.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.65 27.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.70 27.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.30 30.3%
3.20 31.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.13 32.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.06 48.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.27 78.7%
home_draw 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.38 72.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1%
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3% — 3.00 33.3%
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — 6.00 16.7%
Over 5.5 — — 13.00 7.7%
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.75 26.7% — —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.13 88.5% — —
Match center
Charlotte
Founded 2019
Philadelphia Union
Founded 2008
Match center
Charlotte
HK H. Kessler Muscle Injury
Philadelphia Union
QS Q. Sullivan Leg Injury
AA A. Anello Muscle Injury
Charlotte Founded: 2019
Philadelphia Union Founded: 2008
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.