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Major League Soccer USA

04.04.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction

04.04.2026 23:30 UTC

Finished

Major League Soccer

DC United - FC Dallas

USA Football

Stadium Audi Fild

DC United

0 : 4

Finished

FC Dallas

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 DC United — 39%

1 · DC United38.8%

X · draw28.5%

2 · FC Dallas32.8%

Model estimate: win DC United 38.8%, draw 28.5%, win FC Dallas 32.8%. Model favourite — DC United.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction DC United - FC Dallas April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like DC United.

Strongest: DC United - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.20 / X 3.40 / 2 3.08
1X2 market: DC United 42.3% / X 27.4% / FC Dallas 30.3%
Glicko: DC United 38.8% / X 28.5% / FC Dallas 32.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.3%

1 42.3%

X 27.4%

2 30.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%

Over 2.5 51.1%

Under 2.5 48.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 41.3%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 04.04.2026 23:30 UTC

Stadium Audi Fild (Vashington)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model DC United 39%

💹 Market DC United 4231%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

DC United - FC Dallas

DC United: Win 2.25 DC United: Draw 3.50 FC Dallas Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.85 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.95 Individualnyy total golov DC United bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov DC United menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov FC Dal…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:4

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 2

min Event Player Team

16' 16' Normal Goal | L. Farrington FC Dallas

45' 45' Yellow Card | L. Bartlett DC United

45' 45' Normal Goal | P. Delgado FC Dallas

60' 60' Substitution 1 | S. Nealis | assist/sub out: A. Herrera DC United

61' 61' Substitution 3 | J. Hopkins | assist/sub out: L. Munteanu DC United

67' 67' Substitution 1 | P. Delgado | assist/sub out: C. Cappis FC Dallas

67' 67' Yellow Card | N. Norris FC Dallas

68' 68' Substitution 4 | T. Baribo | assist/sub out: J. Murrell DC United

Metric DC United FC Dallas SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.61 2.07 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final

Shots off target 3 3 final

Shots on target 4 8 final

Udary vsego 11 15 final

Fouls soversheno 15 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final

Offsides 1 0 final

Player Team Metric SStats

J. Valiente DC United football.player.assists 1

J. Valiente DC United Dribling popytki 1

J. Valiente DC United Dribling uspeshno 1

J. Valiente DC United Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

J. Valiente DC United Fouls na igroke 1

J. Valiente DC United Seyvy 0

J. Valiente DC United football.player.minutes_played 19

J. Valiente DC United Tochnost pasov % 1

J. Valiente DC United Klyuchevye pasy 11

J. Valiente DC United Reyting (staryy) 7

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

DC United 42.1% 38.8% market and model agree

Draw 27.5% 28.5% draw risk

FC Dallas 30.3% 32.8%

xG - 1.20 : 1.08

Total 2.5 Over 80.5% - Under 19.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 38.8% / 28.5% / 32.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,466 / 1,563 DC United / FC Dallas

RD 134 / 132 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.08 market consensus · no value · model 32.8%

X 3.40 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.20 market consensus · no value · model 38.8%

Double chance

X2 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 61.2%

12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 71.5%

1X 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 67.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.01 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.38 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.86 market consensus · value +49.8% · model 80.5%

Under 2.5 1.94 market consensus · no value · model 19.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.09 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	2.22 45.1%	2.17 46.1%	2.20 45.5%	2.27 44.1%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%
X	3.45 29.0%	3.55 28.2%	3.50 28.6%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.30 30.3%
	3.00 33.3%	2.95 33.9%	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	Bet365	Betano	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet	William Hill
no	2.10 47.6%	2.06 48.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.12 47.2%	2.10 47.6%	2.06 48.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%
yes	1.65 60.6%	1.74 57.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.66 60.2%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.62 61.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.63 61.4%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	Bet365
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	—	1.25 80.0%
Over 2.5	1.83 54.6%	1.92 52.1%	1.85 54.1%
Over 3.5	3.10 32.3%	—	3.25 30.8%
Over 4.5	5.75 17.4%	—	6.00 16.7%
Over 5.5	—	—	13.00 7.7%
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.70 27.0%	—	—
Under 2.5	1.95 51.3%	1.97 50.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.36 73.5%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.12 89.3%	—	—

Match center

DC United

Founded 1996

FC Dallas

Founded 1996

Match center

DC United

LM L. Munteanu Lower-Body Injury

AH A. Herrera Leg Injury

FC Dallas

AA A. A. Julio Santos Leg Injury

GJ Geovane Jesus Knee Injury

DC United Founded: 1996

FC Dallas Founded: 1996

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDC United - FC Dallas

DC United

0 matches total

FC Dallas

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.