PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Major League Soccer
Major League Soccer USA
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Major League Soccer

USA

New York City FC - St. Louis City

USA Football
Stadium Siti Fild
New York City FC
New York City FC
1 : 1
Finished
St. Louis City
St. Louis City
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 New York City FC — 51%

1 · New York City FC50.8%
X · draw25.2%
2 · St. Louis City24.0%

Model estimate: win New York City FC 50.8%, draw 25.2%, win St. Louis City 24.0%. Model favourite — New York City FC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction New York City FC - St. Louis City April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like New York City FC.

Strongest: New York City FC - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.69 / X 3.80 / 2 4.57
  • 1X2 market: New York City FC 55.2% / X 24.5% / St. Louis City 20.4%
  • Glicko: New York City FC 50.8% / X 25.2% / St. Louis City 24.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 15.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.4%
1 55.1%
X 24.5%
2 20.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.9%
Over 2.5 53.9%
Under 2.5 46.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Stadium Siti Fild (Nyu-York)

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model New York City FC 51%
💹 Market New York City FC 5515%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

New York City FC - St. Louis City

New York City FC: Win 1.75 New York City FC: Draw 3.90 St. Louis City Win: 4.33 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.08 Individualnyy total golov New York City FC bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov New York City FC menshe 1.5: 2.00 …

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 3
min Event Player Team
43' 43' Yellow Card | D. Edelman St. Louis City
50' 50' Normal Goal | H. Wolf | assist/sub out: M. Moralez S. Magassa New York City FC
56' 56' Yellow Card St. Louis City
58' 58' Yellow Card New York City FC
61' 61' Yellow Card St. Louis City
65' 65' Substitution 1 | C. Durkin | assist/sub out: M. Perez St. Louis City
71' 71' Substitution 2 | D. Edelman | assist/sub out: L. MacNaughton St. Louis City
71' 71' Substitution 3 | S. Cordova | assist/sub out: C. Teuchert M. Leitsch St. Louis City
Metric New York City FC St. Louis City SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.14 1.4 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 5 final
Shots off target 4 6 final
Shots on target 7 3 final
Udary vsego 15 14 final
Fouls soversheno 9 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 2 2 final
St. Louis City #16 S. Córdova, #21 D. Polvara
Player Team Metric SStats
Talles Magno New York City FC football.player.assists 0
Talles Magno New York City FC Dribling popytki 1
Talles Magno New York City FC Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
Talles Magno New York City FC Seyvy 0
Talles Magno New York City FC football.player.minutes_played 12
Talles Magno New York City FC Klyuchevye pasy 3
Talles Magno New York City FC Pasy vsego 1
Talles Magno New York City FC Reyting (staryy) 6.5
Talles Magno New York City FC Shots on target 2
Talles Magno New York City FC Otbory vsego 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
New York City FC 55.8% 50.8% market and model agree
Draw 24.4% 25.2% draw risk
St. Louis City 19.8% 24.0%
xG - 1.58 : 1.00
Total 2.5 Over 15.2% - Under 84.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.8% / 25.2% / 24.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,622 / 1,443 New York City FC / St. Louis City
RD 132 / 137 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.57 market consensus · no value · model 24.0%
X 3.80 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 50.8%
Double chance
X2 2.09 market consensus · no value · model 49.2%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 76.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.35 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.10 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 15.2%
Under 2.5 2.05 market consensus · weak value +73.8% · model 84.8%
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.73 57.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6%
X 3.80 26.3% 3.95 25.3% 3.70 27.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 3.75 26.7%
4.40 22.7% 4.30 23.3% 4.75 21.1% 4.85 20.6% 4.60 21.7% 4.50 22.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.01 49.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.66 60.2% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
draw_away 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.14 87.7% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% — 1.73 57.8%
Over 2.75 — 1.99 50.3% —
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3% — 2.75 36.4%
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — 5.50 18.2%
Over 5.5 — — 11.00 9.1%
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 3.80 26.3% — —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.90 52.6% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.13 88.5% — —
Match center
New York City FC
Founded 2013
St. Louis City
Founded 2023
Match center
New York City FC
AP A. Perea Leg Injury
AM A. Martínez Knee Injury
St. Louis City
CT C. Teuchert Ankle Injury
EL E. Löwen Personal Reasons
New York City FC Founded: 2013
St. Louis City Founded: 2023
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.