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Major League Soccer
Major League Soccer USA
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Major League Soccer

USA

New York Red Bulls - FC Cincinnati

USA Football
Stadium Sports Illyustreyted Stadium
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
4 : 2
Finished
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 New York Red Bulls — 46%

1 · New York Red Bulls45.7%
X · draw26.1%
2 · FC Cincinnati28.3%

Model estimate: win New York Red Bulls 45.7%, draw 26.1%, win FC Cincinnati 28.3%. Model favourite — New York Red Bulls.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction New York Red Bulls - FC Cincinnati April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like New York Red Bulls.

Strongest: New York Red Bulls - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.99 / X 3.63 / 2 3.37
  • 1X2 market: New York Red Bulls 46.7% / X 25.6% / FC Cincinnati 27.7%
  • Glicko: New York Red Bulls 45.7% / X 26.1% / FC Cincinnati 28.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 78.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 46.8%
X 25.6%
2 27.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 56.4%
Under 2.5 43.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 46.5%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 23:30 UTC
Stadium Sports Illyustreyted Stadium (Garrison)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model New York Red Bulls 46%
💹 Market New York Red Bulls 4668%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

New York Red Bulls - FC Cincinnati

New York Red Bulls: Win 1.95 New York Red Bulls: Draw 3.90 FC Cincinnati Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.35 Individualnyy total golov New York Red Bulls bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov New York Red Bulls menshe 1.5…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:2
Events 21
Statistics 26
Lineups 24
min Event Player Team
12' 12' Normal Goal | J. Hall New York Red Bulls
17' 17' Normal Goal FC Cincinnati
37' 37' Yellow Card FC Cincinnati
48' 48' Normal Goal New York Red Bulls
57' 57' Yellow Card | R. Donkor New York Red Bulls
65' 65' Own Goal | K. Smith New York Red Bulls
67' 67' Substitution 3 | S. Gidi | assist/sub out: B. Anunga FC Cincinnati
70' 70' Substitution 3 | M. Dos Santos | assist/sub out: O. Valencia New York Red Bulls
Metric New York Red Bulls FC Cincinnati SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2 2.8 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 3 final
Shots off target 6 8 final
Shots on target 6 6 final
Udary vsego 18 17 final
Fouls soversheno 12 12 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
New York Red Bulls #6 R. Voloder, #7 C. Cowell, #11 J. Ruvalcaba
FC Cincinnati #4 N. Hagglund, #9 K. Denkey, #10 Evander, #11 S. Gidi, #13 E. Louro, #16 T. Barlow, #20 P. Bucha, #21 M. Miazga, #24 K. Smith, #29 Bryan Josías Ramírez León, #66 E. Echenique
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Chirila FC Cincinnati Seyvy 0
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati football.player.assists 0
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati Dribling popytki 1
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati Seyvy 0
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati football.player.minutes_played 14
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati Klyuchevye pasy 3
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati Reyting (staryy) 6.2
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati Otbory vsego 3
A. Jabbari FC Cincinnati Yellow cards 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
New York Red Bulls 47.1% 45.7% market and model agree
Draw 25.7% 26.1% draw risk
FC Cincinnati 27.2% 28.3%
xG - 1.47 : 1.09
Total 2.5 Over 78.5% - Under 21.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 45.7% / 26.1% / 28.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,442 / 1,461 New York Red Bulls / FC Cincinnati
RD 134 / 133 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.37 market consensus · no value · model 28.3%
X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.99 market consensus · no value · model 45.7%
Double chance
X2 1.77 market consensus · no value · model 54.3%
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 73.9%
1X 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 71.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.41 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.34 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.98 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · value +31.1% · model 78.5%
Under 2.5 2.16 market consensus · no value · model 21.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.27 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.00 50.0% 1.99 50.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0% 3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.60 27.8%
3.35 29.9% 3.20 31.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.30 43.5% 2.28 43.9% 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.25 44.4% 2.22 45.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5%
yes 1.55 64.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
draw_away 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.77 56.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.20 83.3%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — 1.67 59.9%
Over 2.75 — 1.93 51.8% —
Over 3.5 2.62 38.2% — 2.62 38.2%
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% — 5.00 20.0%
Over 5.5 — — 10.00 10.0%
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.96 51.0% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center
New York Red Bulls
Founded 1995
Match center
New York Red Bulls
GB G. Berggren Red Card
DN D. Nealis Ankle Injury
FC Cincinnati
ON O. Nwobodo Injury
MR M. Robinson Red Card
New York Red Bulls Founded: 1995
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.