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Major League Soccer
Major League Soccer USA
04.04.2026 20:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 20:30 UTC
Finished

Major League Soccer

USA

Real Salt Lake - Sporting Kansas City

USA Football
Stadium Amerika Ferst Fild
Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
3 : 1
Finished
Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Real Salt Lake — 70%

1 · Real Salt Lake ✓ Pick69.9%
market66%
X · draw18.8%
market21%
2 · Sporting Kansas City11.3%
market14%

Model estimate: win Real Salt Lake 69.9%, draw 18.8%, win Sporting Kansas City 11.3%. Model favourite — Real Salt Lake.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Salt Lake - Sporting Kansas City April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Salt Lake.

Strongest: Real Salt Lake - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.42 / X 4.49 / 2 6.87
  • 1X2 market: Real Salt Lake 65.5% / X 20.8% / Sporting Kansas City 13.8%
  • Glicko: Real Salt Lake 69.9% / X 18.8% / Sporting Kansas City 11.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 82.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.3%
1 ✓ Pick 65.7%
X 20.8%
2 13.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%
Over 2.5 60.5%
Under 2.5 39.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 69.1%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 20:30 UTC
Stadium Amerika Ferst Fild (Sendi)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Real Salt Lake 70%
💹 Market Real Salt Lake 6547%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Real Salt Lake - Sporting Kansas City

Real Salt Lake: Win 1.27 Real Salt Lake: Draw 6.25 Sporting Kansas City Win: 9.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Real Salt Lake bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Real Salt Lake menshe 2.5: 1.73 In…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:1
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 26
min Event Player Team
4' 4' Normal Goal | D. Luna Real Salt Lake
45+1' 45+1' Penalty cancelled | S. Solans Real Salt Lake
46' 46' Substitution 1 | E. Bartlow | assist/sub out: Diego Borges Sporting Kansas City
55' 55' Normal Goal Real Salt Lake
59' 59' Normal Goal | D. Joveljic | assist/sub out: J. Reynolds D. Affengruber Sporting Kansas City
64' 64' Substitution 3 | J. Reynolds | assist/sub out: J. Bartlett Sporting Kansas City
64' 64' Substitution 2 | J. Reynolds | assist/sub out: J. Bartlett Sporting Kansas City
72' 72' Substitution 1 | S. Solans | assist/sub out: V. Olatunji Real Salt Lake
Metric Real Salt Lake Sporting Kansas City SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.55 0.48 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 0 final
Shots off target 8 2 final
Shots on target 7 3 final
Udary vsego 22 5 final
Fouls soversheno 15 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Real Salt Lake #1 Rafael Cabral, #4 L. Engel, #6 S. Spierings, #9 M. Guilavogui, #15 J. Glad, #26 P. Quinton, #72 Z. Gozo, #98 A. Katránis
Sporting Kansas City #1 J. Pulskamp, #2 I. James, #4 L. Johnsen, #8 J. Davis, #9 D. Joveljić, #11 C. Harris, #15 Jansen Miller, #93 M. Suleymanov
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake football.player.assists 0
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Dribling popytki 3
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Seyvy 0
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake football.player.minutes_played 72
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Klyuchevye pasy 18
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Pasy vsego 1
A. Katránis Real Salt Lake Reyting (staryy) 6.9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Real Salt Lake 68.3% 69.9% market and model agree
Draw 20.4% 18.8% draw risk
Sporting Kansas City 11.3% 11.3%
xG - 2.11 : 0.71
Total 2.5 Over 82.3% - Under 17.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 69.9% / 18.8% / 11.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,562 / 1,378 Real Salt Lake / Sporting Kansas City
RD 134 / 135 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.87 market consensus · no value · model 11.3%
X 4.49 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 69.9%
Double chance
X2 2.72 market consensus · no value · model 30.1%
12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 81.2%
1X 1.09 market consensus · no value · model 88.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.75 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.17 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.13 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · value +27.6% · model 82.3%
Under 2.5 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 17.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.05 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4%
X 4.65 21.5% 4.85 20.6% 4.75 21.1% 4.20 23.8% 4.75 21.1% 4.50 22.2%
6.00 16.7% 6.20 16.1% 6.50 15.4% 8.75 11.4% 6.50 15.4% 6.50 15.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.10 47.6% 2.08 48.1% 2.00 50.0% 2.12 47.2% 2.05 48.8% 1.93 51.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.76 56.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
draw_away 2.62 38.2% 2.75 36.4% 2.90 34.5% 2.75 36.4% 2.75 36.4% 2.64 37.9%
home_away 1.14 87.7% 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.14 87.7% 1.11 90.1% 1.21 82.6%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1% 1.09 91.7% 1.08 92.6% 1.11 90.1% 1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet Bet365
Over 0.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.17 85.5% — 1.17 85.5%
Over 2.5 1.53 65.4% — 1.53 65.4%
Over 3.0 — 1.86 53.8% —
Over 3.5 2.35 42.6% — 2.25 44.4%
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8% — 4.00 25.0%
Over 5.5 8.00 12.5% — 8.00 12.5%
Under 1.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 2.5 2.45 40.8% — —
Under 3.0 — 2.03 49.3% —
Under 3.5 1.57 63.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Real Salt Lake
Founded 2004
Sporting Kansas City
Founded 1995
Match center
Real Salt Lake
DY D. Yedlin Muscle Injury
TW T. Wolff Shoulder Injury
Sporting Kansas City
ZB Z. Bassong Hamstring Injury
JR J. Reid Ankle Injury
Real Salt Lake Founded: 2004
Sporting Kansas City Founded: 1995
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.