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Mexico. Liga de Expansion
Mexico. Liga de Expansion
30.07.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
30.07.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

Mexico. Liga de Expansion

Alebrijes Oaxaca - Dorados de Sinaloa

Football
A
Alebrijes Oaxaca
1 : 2
Finished
D
Dorados de Sinaloa
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Alebrijes Oaxaca — 49%

Pure model vs market (1 · Alebrijes Oaxaca): model 34% · market 50% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Alebrijes Oaxaca49.1%
X · draw25.4%
2 · Dorados de Sinaloa25.5%

Model estimate: win Alebrijes Oaxaca 49.1%, draw 25.4%, win Dorados de Sinaloa 25.5%. Model favourite — Alebrijes Oaxaca.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Dorados de Sinaloa (odds1.94) Score 1:2 confidence 51% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Model backs Dorados de Sinaloa: probability 51% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.94)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alebrijes Oaxaca - Dorados de Sinaloa July 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alebrijes Oaxaca.

Line favourite market consensus: Alebrijes Oaxaca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.95 / X 3.70 / 2 4.00
  • Glicko: Alebrijes Oaxaca 49.1% / X 25.4% / Dorados de Sinaloa 25.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.3%
1 49.6%
X 26.2%
2 24.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 4.40 ↑ 8.00
1X2 X 3.25 ↓ 1.12
1X2 2 1.83 ↓ 1.01

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Alebrijes Oaxaca 2 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
11.74
X3.50
24.17

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 23:00 UTC
Match center

Alebrijes Oaxaca - Dorados de Sinaloa

Form 1/0 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 49.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.860 / LogLoss 1.364
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 49.2% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.860 / LogLoss 1.364
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Alebrijes Oaxaca 50.0% 49.1% market and model agree
Draw 25.6% 25.4% draw risk
Dorados de Sinaloa 24.3% 25.5%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 49.1% / 25.4% / 25.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,301 / 1,500 Alebrijes Oaxaca / Dorados de Sinaloa
RD 291 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 719-1,883 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.73 market consensus · no value · model 25.5%
X 3.59 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 49.1%
Double chance
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.6%
1X 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
X2 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 50.9%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.80 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.94 51.6%
yes 1.78 56.2%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.17 85.5% 1.23 81.3%
x2 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.36 42.4%
X 2.22 45.1%
4.43 22.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.61 38.3%
Under 1.5 1.40 71.4%
Match center
Alebrijes Oaxaca
L
25.07 21:00 UTC Mexico: Liga Ekspanson MKh - Apertura Standings
Alebrijes Oaxaca 0:3 Venados
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points