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Colombia. Serie B
Colombia. Serie B
01.08.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

Colombia. Serie B

Deportivo Tapatio - Jaiba Brava

Football
D
Deportivo Tapatio
1 : 0
Finished
J
Jaiba Brava

Deportivo Tapatio go head-to-head with Jaiba Brava on August 1, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie B.

Recent form (W-D-L): Deportivo Tapatio 0-2-3, Jaiba Brava 1-2-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 48% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Deportivo Tapatio — 48%

1 · Deportivo Tapatio48.2%
X · draw19.8%
2 · Jaiba Brava32.0%

Model estimate: win Deportivo Tapatio 48.2%, draw 19.8%, win Jaiba Brava 32.0%. Model favourite — Deportivo Tapatio.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Deportivo Tapatio (odds2.07) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Model backs Tapatio: probability 50% vs 48% on the line (odds 2.07)
  • • edge over the line +2 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo Tapatio - Jaiba Brava August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportivo Tapatio.

Line favourite Fonbet: Deportivo Tapatio. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / X 6.00 / 2 3.05
  • Glicko: Deportivo Tapatio 48.2% / X 19.8% / Jaiba Brava 32.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 47.5%
1 66.5%
X 11.3%
2 22.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Deportivo Tapatio 1 : 1 Jaiba Brava
12.35
X3.22
22.68

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 66.5% @ 1.02 / X 11.3% @ 6.00 / 2 22.2% @ 3.05
Match center

Deportivo Tapatio - Jaiba Brava

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 48.2% fact: home hit / ROI 123.0% / Brier 0.409 / LogLoss 0.729
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 48.2% fact: home hit / ROI 123.0% / Brier 0.409 / LogLoss 0.729
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Deportivo Tapatio 41.6% 48.2% market and model agree
Draw 28.1% 19.8% draw risk
Jaiba Brava 30.4% 32.0%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 48.2% / 19.8% / 32.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,481 / 1,560 Deportivo Tapatio / Jaiba Brava
RD 291 / 263 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 899-2,063 / 1,034-2,085 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.05 market consensus · no value · model 32.0%
X 6.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 48.2%
Double chance
12 1.09 Fonbet · no value · model 80.2%
1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 68.0%
X2 8.00 Fonbet · weak value +314.1% · model 51.8%
Handicap
2 -1 1.73 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.20 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.21 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 10.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.09 Fonbet · line only
Yes 5.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.09 91.7% 1.96 51.0%
yes 5.70 17.5% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.09 91.7%
1x 1.02 98.0%
x2 8.00 12.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.81 35.6%
X 2.15 46.5%
3.58 27.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.35 74.1%
Under 0.5 2.80 35.7%
Match center
Deportivo Tapatio
D L D L L
2026-07-26 Liga Expansion MX 26/27, Apertura
Deportivo Tapatio Deportivo Tapatio 0:0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
2026-04-27 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Deportivo Tapatio Cancun FC 1:0 Deportivo Tapatio
2026-04-24 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Deportivo Tapatio Deportivo Tapatio 1:1 Cancun FC
2026-04-18 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026
Deportivo Tapatio Dorados Sinaloa 3:1 Deportivo Tapatio
2026-04-11 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026
Deportivo Tapatio Deportivo Tapatio 1:2 Irapuato
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
2 Points
Jaiba Brava
D W L L D
2026-07-26 Liga Expansion MX 26/27, Apertura
Jaiba Brava 0:0 Piratas de Veracruz FC Jaiba Brava
2026-05-31 Campeon de Campeones Liga Expansion MX 2026
Jaiba Brava 4:2 Tepatitlan Morelos Jaiba Brava
2026-05-24 Campeon de Campeones Liga Expansion MX 2026
Tepatitlan Morelos 3:1 Jaiba Brava Jaiba Brava
2026-05-17 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Tepatitlan Morelos 1:0 Jaiba Brava Jaiba Brava
2026-05-10 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Jaiba Brava 0:0 Tepatitlan Morelos Jaiba Brava
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points