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Mexico. Liga de Expansion
Mexico. Liga de Expansion
31.07.2026 19:45 UTC
31.07.2026 19:45 UTC
Not started

Mexico. Liga de Expansion

Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Venados

Football
C
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- : -
Not started
V
Venados
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Venados — 50%

1 · Cruz Azul Hidalgo30.2%
X · draw19.4%
2 · Venados50.4%

Model estimate: win Cruz Azul Hidalgo 30.2%, draw 19.4%, win Venados 50.4%. Model favourite — Venados.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Venados (odds1.99) Score 1:2 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Venados: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 1.99)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Venados July 31, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Cruz Azul Hidalgo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.58 / X 3.10 / 2 2.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 35.9%
X 29.9%
2 34.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Venados

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Form Match Participants
More needed
Market fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cruz Azul Hidalgo - 30.2%
Draw - 19.4% draw risk
Venados - 50.4% model pick

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 30.2% / 19.4% / 50.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,519 / 1,699 Cruz Azul Hidalgo / Venados
RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 937-2,101 / 1,117-2,281 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.70 market consensus · value +36.0% · model 50.4%
X 3.05 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.56 market consensus · no value · model 30.2%
Double chance
12 1.32 market consensus · value +6.4% · model 80.6%
1X 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 49.6%
X2 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 69.8%
Handicap
2 0 1.90 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.16 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.61 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.80 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.80 55.6%
yes 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.29 77.5% 1.34 74.6%
1x 1.37 73.0% 1.41 70.9%
x2 1.41 70.9% 1.45 69.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.31 30.2%
X 1.97 50.8%
3.44 29.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.48 67.6%
Under 0.5 2.36 42.4%
Match center
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
D
26.07 21:00 UTC Mexico: Liga Ekspanson MKh - Apertura Standings
Cruz Azul Hidalgo 0:0 Tapatio
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Venados
W
25.07 21:00 UTC Mexico: Liga Ekspanson MKh - Apertura Standings
Venados 3:0 Alebrikhes de Oakhaka
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points