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Colombia. Serie B
Colombia. Serie B
02.08.2026 01:00 UTC Match prediction
02.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished

Colombia. Serie B

Piratas de Veracruz FC - Atletico Morelia

Football
P
Piratas de Veracruz FC
1 : 0
Finished
A
Atletico Morelia

Piratas de Veracruz FC take on Atletico Morelia on August 2, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie B.

Recent form (W-D-L): Piratas de Veracruz FC 0-2-0, Atletico Morelia 2-1-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 40% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Piratas de Veracruz FC — 40%

Pure model vs market (1 · Piratas de Veracruz FC): model 47% · market 68% Δ −21 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Piratas de Veracruz FC40.2%
X · draw29.5%
2 · Atletico Morelia30.3%

Model estimate: win Piratas de Veracruz FC 40.2%, draw 29.5%, win Atletico Morelia 30.3%. Model favourite — Piratas de Veracruz FC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Piratas de Veracruz FC (odds2.25) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Model backs Piratas: probability 50% vs 44% on the line (odds 2.25)
  • • edge over the line +6 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Piratas de Veracruz FC - Atletico Morelia August 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Piratas de Veracruz FC.

Line favourite Fonbet: Piratas de Veracruz FC. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 6.80 / 2 3.06
  • Glicko: Piratas de Veracruz FC 40.2% / X 29.5% / Atletico Morelia 30.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 46.4%
1 67.6%
X 10.0%
2 22.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Piratas de Veracruz FC 2 : 1 Atletico Morelia
12.28
X3.02
23.04

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 67.6% @ 1.01 / X 10.0% @ 6.80 / 2 22.3% @ 3.06
Match center

Piratas de Veracruz FC - Atletico Morelia

Form 1/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 40.2% fact: home hit / ROI 130.0% / Brier 0.537 / LogLoss 0.912
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 40.2% fact: home hit / ROI 130.0% / Brier 0.537 / LogLoss 0.912
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Piratas de Veracruz FC 39.7% 40.2% market and model agree
Draw 30.0% 29.5% draw risk
Atletico Morelia 30.3% 30.3%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 40.2% / 29.5% / 30.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,556 / 1,500 Piratas / La Eliana (w)
RD 288 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 980-2,133 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.02 market consensus · no value · model 30.3%
X 6.80 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 40.2%
Double chance
12 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 70.5%
1X 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 69.7%
X2 9.50 Fonbet · weak value +468.5% · model 59.8%
Handicap
2 -1 2.13 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.13 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.26 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 9.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.09 Fonbet · line only
Yes 5.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.09 91.7% 1.83 54.6%
yes 5.60 17.9% 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.29 77.5% 1.34 74.6% 1.07 93.5%
1x 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.04 96.2%
x2 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 9.50 10.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.98 33.6%
X 2.01 49.8%
3.75 26.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.42 70.4%
Under 0.5 2.54 39.4%
Match center
Piratas de Veracruz FC
D
2026-07-26 Liga Expansion MX 26/27, Apertura
Piratas de Veracruz FC Jaiba Brava 0:0 Piratas de Veracruz FC
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Atletico Morelia
W D W L L
2026-07-26 Liga Expansion MX 26/27, Apertura
Atletico Morelia 4:2 Atletico La Paz Atletico Morelia
2026-07-05 Club Friendly Games 2026
Atletico Morelia 3:3 Cruz Azul Atletico Morelia
2026-04-26 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Atletico Morelia 2:0 Mineros Sakatekas Atletico Morelia
2026-04-23 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Mineros Sakatekas 3:0 Atletico Morelia Atletico Morelia
2026-04-19 Liga de Expansion MX, Clausura 2026
Jaiba Brava 1:0 Atletico Morelia Atletico Morelia
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points