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Mexico. Women. Liga MX
Mexico. Women. Liga MX
01.08.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

Mexico. Women. Liga MX

Juarez (w) - Toluca U19 (w)

Football
J
Juarez (w)
0 : 2
Finished
T
Toluca U19 (w)

Juarez (w) face Toluca U19 (w) on August 1, 2026 in the Mexico. Women. Liga MX.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 35% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Toluca U19 (w) — 39%

Pure model vs market (2 · Toluca U19 (w)): model 33% · market 8% Δ +25 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Juarez (w)34.8%
X · draw26.6%
2 · Toluca U19 (w)38.6%

Model estimate: win Juarez (w) 34.8%, draw 26.6%, win Toluca U19 (w) 38.6%. Model favourite — Toluca U19 (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Juarez (w) (odds1.92) Score 2:1 confidence 52% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Khuares (Zh): probability 52% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.92)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Juarez (w) - Toluca U19 (w) August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Juarez (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Juarez (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / X 1.28 / 2 6.40
  • Glicko: Juarez (w) 34.8% / X 26.6% / Toluca U19 (w) 38.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 91.8%
1 51.1%
X 40.7%
2 8.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 8.50 ↑ 15.00
1X2 X 4.50 ↑ 5.00
1X2 2 1.30 ↓ 1.17

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Juarez (w) 2 : 2 Toluca U19 (w)
12.88
X3.32
22.20

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 51.1% @ 1.02 / X 40.7% @ 1.28 / 2 8.1% @ 6.40
Match center

Juarez (w) - Toluca U19 (w)

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table away - 38.6% fact: away hit / ROI 135.0% / Brier 0.568 / LogLoss 0.951
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table away - 38.6% fact: away hit / ROI 135.0% / Brier 0.568 / LogLoss 0.951
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Juarez (w) 34.2% 34.8%
Draw 26.8% 26.6% draw risk
Toluca U19 (w) 39.0% 38.6% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 34.8% / 26.6% / 38.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Juarez (w) / Toluca U19 (w)
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.40 Fonbet · no value · model 38.6%
X 1.28 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 34.8%
Double chance
12 3.20 Fonbet · weak value +134.9% · model 73.4%
1X 1.09 Fonbet · no value · model 61.4%
X2 9.50 Fonbet · weak value +519.7% · model 65.2%
Handicap
2 0 1.85 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Yes 9.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.03 97.1% 2.10 47.6%
yes 9.00 11.1% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.18 84.8% 1.27 78.7% 3.20 31.3%
1x 1.42 70.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.09 91.7%
x2 1.31 76.3% 1.42 70.4% 9.50 10.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.29 30.4%
X 2.16 46.3%
2.92 34.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.74 57.5%
Under 1 1.98 50.5%