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Mexico. Liga de Expansion
Mexico. Liga de Expansion
07.08.2026 01:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
07.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Not started

Mexico. Liga de Expansion

Leones Negros UDG - Correcaminos Uat

Football
L
Leones Negros UDG
- : -
Not started
C
Correcaminos Uat

Leones Negros UDG face Correcaminos Uat on August 7, 2026 in the Mexico. Liga de Expansion.

Recent form (W-D-L): Leones Negros UDG 2-0-0, Correcaminos Uat 0-1-0. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Leones Negros UDG — 49%

Pure model vs market (1 · Leones Negros UDG): model 60% · market 48% Δ +12 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Leones Negros UDG49.2%
X · draw25.5%
2 · Correcaminos Uat25.3%

Model estimate: win Leones Negros UDG 49.2%, draw 25.5%, win Correcaminos Uat 25.3%. Model favourite — Leones Negros UDG.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Leones Negros UDG (odds1.70) Score 2:1 confidence 59%
  • • Model backs Leones Negros: probability 59% vs 59% on the line (odds 1.70)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones Negros UDG - Correcaminos Uat August 7, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Leones Negros UDG. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.96 / X 3.78 / 2 3.68

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.7% 2 books · best price +3.2%
1 48.5%
X 25.9%
2 25.6%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Baltbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga de Expansión MX
League table
Leones Negros UDG
#16 ptsGP 22-0-06:2
Correcaminos Uat
#44 ptsGP 21-1-06:4
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Leones Negros UDG
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.50 Conceded 1.47 xG 1.24 xGA 1.51
Correcaminos Uat
W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 1.69 Conceded 2.10 xG 1.17 xGA 1.64

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Leones Negros UDG
Rating 1607
Correcaminos Uat
Rating 1475

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated04.08.2026 02:40 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
X 23%
2 15%
Score2:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:1
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Claude updated04.08.2026 02:43 UTC
1 57% ✓ favourite
X 23%
2 20%
Score2:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:Double chance 1X (Leones Negros ne proigraet) ot 1.28

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 62% 23% 15% 2:1 Over 2.5 Yes
Claude 57% 23% 20% 2:1 Over 2.5 Yes Double chance 1X (Leones Negros ne proigraet) ot 1.28

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Match center
Start 07.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 48.8% @ 1.96 / X 25.3% @ 3.78 / 2 26.0% @ 3.68
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Leones Negros UDG 60%
📐 Math model Leones Negros UDG 49%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Leones Negros UDG - Correcaminos Uat

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leones Negros UDG 48.5% 49.2% market and model agree
Draw 25.9% 25.5% draw risk
Correcaminos Uat 25.6% 25.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 49.2% / 25.5% / 25.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,795 / 1,471 Leones Negros / Correcaminos
RD 256 / 254 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,282-2,307 / 964-1,978 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.59 market consensus · no value · model 25.3%
X 3.57 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 49.2%
Double chance
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 74.7%
X2 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 50.8%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.45 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.02 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.10 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet
12 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.22 82.0%
x2 1.69 59.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.37 42.2%
X 2.33 42.9%
4.03 24.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.41 41.5%
Under 1.5 1.46 68.5%
Match center
Leones Negros UDG
W W
02.08 01:00 UTC Mexico: Liga Ekspanson MKh - Apertura Standings
Leones Negros UDG 2:0 Kankun
25.07 20:00 UTC Mexico: Liga Ekspanson MKh - Apertura Standings
Leones Negros UDG 4:2 Tlaskala
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Correcaminos Uat
D
24.07 23:00 UTC Mexico: Liga Ekspanson MKh - Apertura Standings
Correcaminos Uat 3:3 Sakatekas Mineros
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
1 Points