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England. Premier League. Outrights
England. Premier League. Outrights
01.08.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

England. Premier League. Outrights

Leeds - Sunderland

Football
L
Leeds
0 : 1
Finished
Sunderland
Sunderland

Leeds take on Sunderland on August 1, 2026 in the England. Premier League. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Leeds 1-0-1, Sunderland 0-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 29% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Sunderland — 45%

Pure model vs market (2 · Sunderland): model 22% · market 27% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Leeds28.8%
X · draw25.8%
2 · Sunderland45.4%

Model estimate: win Leeds 28.8%, draw 25.8%, win Sunderland 45.4%. Model favourite — Sunderland.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.50) Score 1:1 Under 2.5 (odds2.05) ✓ confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.50)
  • • edge over the line +21 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.05).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leeds - Sunderland August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leeds.

Line favourite Fonbet: Leeds. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.00 / X 3.60 / 2 3.50
  • Glicko: Leeds 28.8% / X 25.8% / Sunderland 45.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 47.0%
X 26.1%
2 26.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.55 ↓ 1.95
1X2 X 3.55 ↑ 3.60
1X2 2 2.55 ↑ 3.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 47.0% @ 2.00 / X 26.1% @ 3.60 / 2 26.9% @ 3.50
Match center

Leeds - Sunderland

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 45.4% fact: away hit / Brier 0.448 / LogLoss 0.790
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 45.4% fact: away hit / Brier 0.448 / LogLoss 0.790
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leeds 26.9% 28.8%
Draw 26.2% 25.8% draw risk
Sunderland 46.9% 45.4% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.8% / 25.8% / 45.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,533 / 1,254 Leeds / Sunderland
RD 250 / 248 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,032-2,033 / 758-1,750 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.50 Fonbet · weak value +58.9% · model 45.4%
X 3.60 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.00 Fonbet · no value · model 28.8%
Double chance
12 1.27 Fonbet · no value · model 74.2%
1X 1.28 Fonbet · no value · model 54.6%
X2 1.75 Fonbet · value +24.6% · model 71.2%
Handicap
2 -1 1.40 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 5.50 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.50 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.70 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.20 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.65 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.20 45.5% 2.16 46.3%
yes 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.23 81.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.27 78.7%
1x 1.71 58.5% 1.76 56.8% 1.28 78.1%
x2 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.75 57.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.22 23.7%
X 2.14 46.7%
2.47 40.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.70 58.8%
Over 1.5 2.29 43.7%
Under 1 2.03 49.3%
Under 1.5 1.56 64.1%
Match center
Leeds
L W
29.07 21:30 UTC World: Premier League Summer Series Standings
Leeds 0:1 LiverpulLiverpul
25.07 21:30 UTC World: Premier League Summer Series Standings
Leeds 3:2 Lids
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.5 Scored
1.5 Conceded
3 Points
Sunderland
L L
30.07 23:30 UTC World: Premier League Summer Series Standings
Sunderland 0:1 Lids
25.07 20:00 UTC World: Premier League Summer Series Standings
Sunderland 2:4 LiverpulLiverpul
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.5 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeeds - Sunderland

Leeds
0 matches total
Sunderland
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history