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England. Premier League. Outrights
England. Premier League. Outrights
25.07.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
25.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

England. Premier League. Outrights

Liverpool - Sunderland

Football
L
Liverpool
4 : 2
Finished
Sunderland
Sunderland
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Liverpool — 57%

Pure model vs market (1 · Liverpool): model 44% · market 75% Δ −31 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Liverpool56.8%
X · draw22.3%
2 · Sunderland21.0%

Model estimate: win Liverpool 56.8%, draw 22.3%, win Sunderland 21.0%. Model favourite — Liverpool.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Liverpool (odds1.49) Score 1:0 Under 3 (odds1.85) ✗ confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Liverpul: probability 50% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.49)
  • • no edge over the line (-17 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0
  • • Total: Under 3: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 3 (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Liverpool - Sunderland July 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Liverpool.

Line favourite Fonbet: Liverpool. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.06 / X 8.50 / 2 5.30
  • Glicko: Liverpool 56.8% / X 22.3% / Sunderland 21.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 25.0%
1 75.5%
X 9.4%
2 15.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.50 ↑ 1.62
1X2 X 4.60 ↓ 4.20
1X2 2 5.40 ↓ 4.80

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Premier League - Summer Series
League table
Liverpool
#10 ptsGP 00-0-00:0
Sunderland
#20 ptsGP 00-0-00:0

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Liverpool 2 : 1 Sunderland
11.62
X4.10
24.88

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
103 predictions Choose an outcome
1 96% 99
X 2% 3
2 1% 1
Match center
Start 25.07.2026 20:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Liverpool 96%
📐 Math model Liverpool 57%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Liverpool - Sunderland

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Player opinions LiveResult 103 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 56.8% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.281 / LogLoss 0.566
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table home - 56.8% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.281 / LogLoss 0.566
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Liverpool 57.6% 56.8% market and model agree
Draw 22.2% 22.3% draw risk
Sunderland 20.2% 21.0%
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 56.8% / 22.3% / 21.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Liverpool / Sunderland
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.68 market consensus · no value · model 21.0%
X 8.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 56.8%
Double chance
12 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 77.7%
1X 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 79.0%
X2 6.70 Fonbet · no value · model 43.2%
Handicap
2 -1 3.55 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.82 market consensus · line only
2 0 5.00 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.25 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.25 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 3.65 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.60 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.43 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.60 38.5% 2.20 45.5%
yes 1.43 69.9% 1.60 62.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.04 96.2%
1x 1.15 87.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.08 92.6%
x2 2.10 47.6% 2.16 46.3% 6.70 14.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.13 47.0%
X 2.49 40.2%
4.81 20.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.56 64.1%
Over 1.5 2.26 44.3%
Under 1 2.27 44.1%
Under 1.5 1.57 63.7%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLiverpool - Sunderland

Liverpool
0 matches total
Sunderland
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history