MOZAMBIK: Mokambola Standings
Ferroviario Fortaleza go head-to-head with Baia de Pemba on August 6, 2026 in the MOZAMBIK: Mokambola Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Ferroviario Fortaleza 0-0-1, Baia de Pemba 1-3-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Ferroviario Fortaleza — 53%
Pure model vs market (1 · Ferroviario Fortaleza): model 43% · market 54% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Ferroviario Fortaleza 53.5%, draw 30.1%, win Baia de Pemba 16.4%. Model favourite — Ferroviario Fortaleza.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.45 69.0% |
| yes | 2.55 39.2% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.34 74.6% |
| 1x | 1.06 94.3% | 1.10 90.9% |
| x2 | 1.97 50.8% | 2.06 48.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.55 64.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.30 43.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 2.30 43.5% | |
| 1.17 85.5% | 1.19 84.0% | — | |
| — | — | 1.55 64.5% | |
| 4.20 23.8% | 4.20 23.8% | — |
Ferroviario Fortaleza
Baia de Pemba
Sofala
Chingale de Tete
Full head-to-head historyFerroviario Fortaleza - Baia de Pemba
The Ferroviario Fortaleza - Baia de Pemba breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
