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Nicaragua. Primera Division
Nicaragua. Primera Division
04.07.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

Nicaragua. Primera Division

Matagalpa - Jalapa

Futbol
M
Matagalpa
3 : 1
Finished
J
Jalapa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Matagalpa - Jalapa July 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Matagalpa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 8.00 / 2 15.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 18.2%
1 83.8%
X 10.6%
2 5.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Form and head-to-head • Nicaragua Cup - Quarter Finals

Team stats

Matagalpa
LWLDLWDWLL
W 3 • D 2 • L 5 (10)
Goals average:1.7 : 1.6
Jalapa
WWWDWWDWDL
W 6 • D 3 • L 1 (10)
Goals average:2.2 : 1
Head-to-head: 15 — Matagalpa 6, draws 2, Jalapa 7 (goals 21:19)
  • Jalapa Art — Matagalpa2026-04-11 1:1
  • Matagalpa — Jalapa Art2026-02-11 1:3
  • Matagalpa — Jalapa Art2025-10-26 3:0
  • Jalapa Art — Matagalpa2025-08-16 0:2
  • Jalapa Art — Matagalpa2025-05-02 3:0

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 23:00 UTC
Match center

Matagalpa - Jalapa

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.30 market consensus · line only
X 8.00 Fonbet · line only
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.66 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 0 10.00 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 3.60 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.45 69.0% 2.11 47.4%
yes 2.55 39.2% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.22 82.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.05 95.2%
1x 1.22 82.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.60 62.5% 1.71 58.5% 11.00 9.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.58 38.8%
X 2.17 46.1%
3.84 26.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.65 60.6%
Under 1 2.10 47.6%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMatagalpa - Jalapa

Matagalpa
0 matches total
Jalapa
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history