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Nicaragua. Primera Division
Nicaragua. Primera Division
01.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Not started

Nicaragua. Primera Division

Rancho Santana - Sport Sebaco

Football
R
Rancho Santana
- : -
Not started
S
Sport Sebaco

Rancho Santana take on Sport Sebaco on August 1, 2026 in the Nicaragua. Primera Division.

Recent form (W-D-L): Rancho Santana 0-0-2, Sport Sebaco 1-1-0. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Sport Sebaco50%

Pure model vs market (2 · Sport Sebaco): model 54% · market 53% Δ +1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Rancho Santana25.2%
X · draw24.8%
2 · Sport Sebaco50.0%

Model estimate: win Rancho Santana 25.2%, draw 24.8%, win Sport Sebaco 50.0%. Model favourite — Sport Sebaco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Sport Sebaco (odds1.64) Score 0:2 confidence 61%
  • Model backs Sport Sebaco: probability 61% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.64)
  • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • Expected score 0:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rancho Santana - Sport Sebaco August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Sport Sebaco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.40 / X 3.69 / 2 1.75

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.0%
1 21.2%
X 25.3%
2 53.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Rancho Santana 4 : 0 Sport Sebaco
11.54
X3.78
25.33

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 21.2% @ 4.40 / X 25.3% @ 3.69 / 2 53.4% @ 1.75
Match center

Rancho Santana - Sport Sebaco

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rancho Santana 25.1% 25.2%
Draw 25.1% 24.8% draw risk
Sport Sebaco 49.7% 50.0% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 25.2% / 24.8% / 50.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,261 / 1,698 Rancho Santana / Sport Sebaco
RD 228 / 206 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 804-1,718 / 1,287-2,110 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 50.0%
X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.27 market consensus · no value · model 25.2%
Double chance
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 75.2%
1X 1.99 market consensus · no value · model 50.0%
X2 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.35 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.28 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.95 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.91 52.4% 2.06 48.5%
x2 1.11 90.1% 1.17 85.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.02 24.9%
X 2.39 41.8%
2.31 43.3%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.95 51.3%
1.55 64.5%
3.27 30.6% 3.30 30.3%
1.80 55.6%
2.35 42.6%
1.27 78.7% 1.28 78.1%
Match center
Rancho Santana
L L
28.07 00:00 UTC NIKARAGUA: Liga Primera - Apertura Standings
Rancho Santana 0:2 UNAN-Managua
18.07 22:00 UTC NIKARAGUA: Liga Primera - Apertura Standings
Rancho Santana 1:2 FK Managua
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
0.5 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
Sport Sebaco
D W
25.07 19:00 UTC NIKARAGUA: Liga Primera - Apertura Standings
Sport Sebaco 1:1 San Marcos
18.07 23:00 UTC NIKARAGUA: Liga Primera - Apertura Standings
Sport Sebaco 3:0 Matagalpa
1 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
4 Points