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Norway. U19. National League. Round of 16. First leg
Norway. U19. National League. Round of 16. First leg
28.07.2026 13:30 UTC
28.07.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Norway. U19. National League. Round of 16. First leg

Stromsgodset U19 - Tromso U19

Football
S
Stromsgodset U19
- : -
Finished
T
Tromso U19
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Stromsgodset U19 — 51%

Pure model vs market (1 · Stromsgodset U19): model 44% · market 51% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Stromsgodset U1951.0%
X · draw18.4%
2 · Tromso U1930.6%

Model estimate: win Stromsgodset U19 51.0%, draw 18.4%, win Tromso U19 30.6%. Model favourite — Stromsgodset U19.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Stromsgodset U19 - Tromso U19 July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Stromsgodset U19. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.77 / X 5.00 / 2 3.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.8%
1 51.4%
X 18.2%
2 30.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 13:30 UTC
Match center

Stromsgodset U19 - Tromso U19

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Stromsgodset U19 51.4% 51.0% market and model agree
Draw 18.1% 18.4% draw risk
Tromso U19 30.4% 30.6%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 51.0% / 18.4% / 30.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Stromsgodset U19 / Tromso U19
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.95 market consensus · no value · model 30.6%
X 4.95 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 51.0%
Double chance
12 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 81.6%
1X 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 69.4%
X2 1.89 market consensus · no value · model 49.0%
Handicap
2 0 2.44 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.20 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 3.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.08 92.6% 1.13 88.5%
1x 1.28 78.1% 1.34 74.6%
x2 1.83 54.6% 1.94 51.6%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.46 68.5% 1.48 67.6%
2.40 41.7% 2.47 40.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 2.5 1.19 84.0% 1.21 82.6%
Under 2.5 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.72 58.1% 1.77 56.5%
X 4.90 20.4% 5.00 20.0%
2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3%