Norway. Division 2. Group 1
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Sotra — 51%
Pure model vs market (1 · Sotra): model 30% · market 53% Δ −23 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Sotra 50.8%, draw 24.2%, win Arendal 24.9%. Model favourite — Sotra.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.26 44.3% |
| yes | 1.58 63.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.17 85.5% | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.16 86.2% | 1.21 82.6% |
| x2 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.96 51.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.11 47.4% | |
| X | 2.52 39.7% |
| 4.36 22.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 2.16 46.3% | |
| 1.32 75.8% | 1.34 74.6% | — | |
| — | — | 1.65 60.6% | |
| 2.95 33.9% | 3.00 33.3% | — |
Full head-to-head historySotra - Arendal
The Sotra - Arendal breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
