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Start
04.04.2026 22:30 UTC
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04.04.2026 22:30 UTC
Finished
NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W - Portland Thorns W
2
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 North Carolina Courage W — 43%
Model estimate: win North Carolina Courage W 43.1%, draw 27.2%, win Portland Thorns W 29.8%. Model favourite — North Carolina Courage W.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction North Carolina Courage W - Portland Thorns W April 4, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like North Carolina Courage W.
Strongest: North Carolina Courage W - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.87 / X 3.34 / 2 3.76
- 1X2 market: North Carolina Courage W 48.7% / X 27.2% / Portland Thorns W 24.2%
- Glicko: North Carolina Courage W 43.1% / X 27.2% / Portland Thorns W 29.8%
- Total 2.5: over probability 12.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.0%
1
48.6%
X
27.2%
2
24.2%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 7.3%
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
46.3%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:0
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
North Carolina Courage W 43%
💹 Market
North Carolina Courage W 4865%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
North Carolina Courage W - Portland Thorns W
North Carolina Courage W: Win 1.90 North Carolina Courage W: Draw 3.30 Portland Thorns W Win: 3.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.08 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov North Carolina Courage W bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov North C…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:2
Events
14
Statistics
24
Lineups
0
min
Event
Player
Team
12'
12' Normal Goal
Portland Thorns W
25'
25' Substitution 1 | R. Turner | assist/sub out: M. Alidou d'Anjou
Portland Thorns W
28'
28' Normal Goal | M. Matsukubo
North Carolina Courage W
33'
33' Normal Goal | O. Moultrie
Portland Thorns W
37'
37' Normal Goal | A. Sanchez
North Carolina Courage W
46'
46' Substitution 4 | M. Vignola | assist/sub out: M. Muller
Portland Thorns W
69'
69' Substitution 4 | C. Wickenheiser | assist/sub out: P. Linnehan
North Carolina Courage W
69'
69' Substitution 9 | P. Tordin | assist/sub out: M. Padelski
Portland Thorns W
Metric
North Carolina Courage W
Portland Thorns W
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.01
1.11
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
4
final
Shots off target
3
6
final
Shots on target
7
6
final
Udary vsego
12
16
final
Fouls soversheno
9
8
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
1
final
Offsides
0
1
final
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
North Carolina Courage W
49.0%
43.1%
market and model agree
Draw
27.0%
27.2%
draw risk
Portland Thorns W
24.0%
29.8%
xG
-
1.35 : 1.07
Total 2.5
Over 12.6%
-
Under 87.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.06
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
43.1% / 27.2% / 29.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,468 / 1,591
North Carolina Courage W / Portland Thorns W
RD
154 / 141
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.76
market consensus · no value · model 29.8%
X
3.34
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.87
market consensus · no value · model 43.1%
Double chance
X2
1.87
market consensus · value +6.5% · model 57.0%
12
1.27
market consensus · no value · model 72.8%
1X
1.22
market consensus · no value · model 70.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.83
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.45
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.92
market consensus · line only
1 -1
2.58
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.89
market consensus · no value · model 12.6%
Under 2.5
1.84
market consensus · weak value +60.8% · model 87.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.95
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.70
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | Pinnacle | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 55.0% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.85 54.1% | |
| X | 3.50 28.6% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.46 28.9% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 3.94 25.4% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.61 27.7% | 3.60 27.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Betano | William Hill |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% |
| yes | 1.67 59.9% | 1.73 57.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.90 52.6% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% |
| home_away | 1.26 79.4% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% |
| home_draw | 1.21 82.6% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.26 79.4% |
| Over 2.0 | 1.43 69.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.86 53.8% |
| Over 3.0 | 2.50 40.0% |
| Over 3.5 | 3.10 32.3% |
| Over 4.0 | 4.80 20.8% |
| Over 4.5 | 6.10 16.4% |
| Over 5.5 | 13.00 7.7% |
| Under 0.5 | 9.50 10.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 3.40 29.4% |
| Under 2.0 | 2.60 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.84 54.4% |
| Under 3.0 | 1.47 68.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Under 4.0 | 1.13 88.5% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.08 92.6% |
| Under 5.5 | 1.03 97.1% |
Match center
North Carolina Courage W
Founded
2017
Portland Thorns W
Founded
2012
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNorth Carolina Courage W - Portland Thorns W
North Carolina Courage W
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The North Carolina Courage W - Portland Thorns W breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form