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Paraguay. Premier League
Paraguay. Premier League
28.07.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 19:30 UTC
Finished

Paraguay. Premier League

2 de Mayo - Cerro Porteno

Football
2
2 de Mayo
1 : 0
Finished
C
Cerro Porteno
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Cerro Porteno — 47%

Pure model vs market (2 · Cerro Porteno): model 27% · market 69% Δ −42 pp model estimates below the market

1 · 2 de Mayo23.4%
X · draw29.3%
2 · Cerro Porteno47.3%

Model estimate: win 2 de Mayo 23.4%, draw 29.3%, win Cerro Porteno 47.3%. Model favourite — Cerro Porteno.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

12 de Mayo (odds1.98) Score 2:1 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs 2 de Mayo: probability 50% vs 51% on the line (odds 1.98)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction 2 de Mayo - Cerro Porteno July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cerro Porteno.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cerro Porteno. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 4.30 / X 5.60 / 2 1.11
  • Glicko: 2 de Mayo 23.4% / X 29.3% / Cerro Porteno 47.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 31.2%
1 17.7%
X 13.6%
2 68.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.90 ↑ 17.00
1X2 X 2.60 ↑ 12.00
1X2 2 5.50 ↓ 1.05

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

2 de Mayo 1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
14.41
X3.05
21.94

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 19:30 UTC
Match center

2 de Mayo - Cerro Porteno

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 47.0% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.893 / LogLoss 1.447
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 47.0% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.893 / LogLoss 1.447
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
2 de Mayo 21.7% 23.4%
Draw 29.7% 29.3% draw risk
Cerro Porteno 48.6% 47.3% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 23.4% / 29.3% / 47.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,374 2 de Mayo / Cerro Porteno
RD 350 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 792-1,956 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 47.3%
X 5.60 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.18 market consensus · no value · model 23.4%
Double chance
12 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 70.7%
1X 4.80 Fonbet · weak value +152.9% · model 52.7%
X2 1.12 Fonbet · no value · model 76.6%
Handicap
2 -1 2.94 market consensus · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.37 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.88 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 7.90 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.20 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.20 45.5% 1.63 61.4%
yes 1.60 62.5% 2.14 46.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.31 76.3% 1.34 74.6% 1.08 92.6%
1x 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 4.80 20.8%
x2 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0% 1.12 89.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
5.10 19.6%
X 1.85 54.1%
2.69 37.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.56 64.1%
Over 1 2.32 43.1%
Under 0.5 2.29 43.7%
Under 1 1.54 64.9%
Match center
2 de Mayo
D
24.07 17:00 UTC Paraguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
2 de Mayo 2:2 Rubio Nyu
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Cerro Porteno
L
24.07 19:30 UTC Paraguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
Cerro Porteno 1:2 Sportivo Trinidens
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history2 de Mayo - Cerro Porteno

2 de Mayo
0 matches total
Cerro Porteno
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history