Deportivo Recoleta meet Nacional Asuncion on August 3, 2026 in the Paraguay. Premier League.
Recent form (W-D-L): Deportivo Recoleta 0-0-2, Nacional Asuncion 1-0-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2Nacional Asuncion — 46%
Pure model vs market (2 · Nacional Asuncion): model 43% · market 47%Δ −4 ppmodel estimates below the market
46%2
1 · Deportivo Recoleta25.0%
X · draw28.6%
2 · Nacional Asuncion46.4%
Model estimate: win Deportivo Recoleta 25.0%, draw 28.6%, win Nacional Asuncion 46.4%. Model favourite — Nacional Asuncion.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Xdraw (odds3.28)Score 1:1confidence 50%
•Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 31% on the line (odds 3.28)
•edge over the line +19 pp — value pick
•Expected score 1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Deportivo Recoleta - Nacional Asuncion August 3, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Nacional Asuncion. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.8%
3 books
124.4%
X29.0%
246.6%
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
Division Profesional - Clausura
League table
Deportivo Recoleta
#111 ptsGP 20-1-12:5
Nacional Asuncion
#54 ptsGP 21-1-03:1
Best price
across 13 books
13.90Betfair
X3.43Pinnacle
22.02Betano
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Deportivo Recoleta
Rating 1481xG 0.89Win 22%
Nacional Asuncion
Rating 1591xG 1.54Win 53%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Deportivo Recoleta1:1Nacional Asuncion
13.80
X3.20
22.03
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Deportivo Recoleta24.4%25.0%
Draw29.0%28.6%draw risk
Nacional Asuncion46.6%46.4%market and model agree
xG-0.89 : 1.54
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P225.0% / 28.6% / 46.4%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,413 / 1,607
Deportivo Recoleta / Nacional Asuncion
RD171 / 287
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,071-1,755 / 1,032-2,182
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.97
market consensus · no value · model 46.4%
X3.15
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
13.74
market consensus · no value · model 25.0%
Double chance
121.31
market consensus · no value · model 71.4%
1X1.74
market consensus · no value · model 53.6%
X21.23
market consensus · no value · model 75.0%
Handicap
2 01.43
market consensus · line only
1 02.68
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.52.28
market consensus · line only
Under 2.51.57
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No1.74
market consensus · line only
Yes1.99
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
Outcome
Leon
no
1.7457.5%
yes
1.9950.3%
Double chance
Outcome
Baltbet
Betcity
12
1.3076.9%
1.3275.8%
1x
1.7457.5%
1.7457.5%
x2
1.2282.0%
1.2381.3%
First Half Winner
Outcome
Leon
4.5821.8%
X
1.9351.8%
2.6837.3%
Goals Over/Under First Half
Outcome
Leon
Over 1
2.1945.7%
Under 1
1.6162.1%
Match center
Deportivo Recoleta
LL
30.07 19:30 UTCParaguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
Deportivo Recoleta1:4Libertad
25.07 17:00 UTCParaguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
Deportivo Recoleta0:1San-Lorenso
0Wins
0Draws
2Losses
0.5Scored
2.5Conceded
0Points
Nacional Asuncion
WL
29.07 19:30 UTCParaguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
Nacional Asuncion2:0Olimpiya Asunson
25.07 19:30 UTCParaguay: Copa de Primera - Clausura Standings
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Libertad
San-Lorenso
Olimpiya Asunson
