Paraguay. Premier League
Sportivo San Lorenzo take on Sportivo Luqueno on August 9, 2026 in the Paraguay. Premier League.
Recent form (W-D-L): Sportivo San Lorenzo 2-0-1, Sportivo Luqueno 2-0-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Sportivo Luqueno — 40%
Pure model vs market (2 · Sportivo Luqueno): model 37% · market 40% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Sportivo San Lorenzo 30.6%, draw 29.8%, win Sportivo Luqueno 39.6%. Model favourite — Sportivo Luqueno.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.82 55.0% |
| yes | 1.89 52.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.31 76.3% | 1.34 74.6% |
| 1x | 1.52 65.8% | 1.55 64.5% |
| x2 | 1.31 76.3% | 1.34 74.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.87 25.8% | |
| X | 1.92 52.1% |
| 3.02 33.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.14 46.7% |
| Under 1 | 1.63 61.4% |
Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo Trinidens
Guarani
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidens
Guarani
Full head-to-head historySportivo San Lorenzo - Sportivo Luqueno
The Sportivo San Lorenzo - Sportivo Luqueno breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
