Paraguay. Premier League
Cerro Porteno take on Sportivo Luqueno on August 1, 2026 in the Paraguay. Premier League.
Recent form (W-D-L): Cerro Porteno 3-0-2, Sportivo Luqueno 1-1-3. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 57% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Cerro Porteno — 57%
Pure model vs market (1 · Cerro Porteno): model 32% · market 75% Δ −43 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Cerro Porteno 56.7%, draw 25.0%, win Sportivo Luqueno 18.3%. Model favourite — Cerro Porteno.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cerro Porteno.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.05 95.2% | 1.70 58.8% |
| yes | 7.50 13.3% | 2.03 49.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.23 81.3% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.06 94.3% |
| 1x | 1.10 90.9% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.01 99.0% |
| x2 | 2.25 44.4% | 2.20 45.5% | 5.60 17.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.14 46.7% | |
| X | 2.10 47.6% |
| 5.90 17.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.97 50.8% |
| Under 1 | 1.74 57.5% |
Sportivo Luqueno
Full head-to-head historyCerro Porteno - Sportivo Luqueno
The Cerro Porteno - Sportivo Luqueno breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
